This year is the 30th anniversary of the 1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis, when Beijing made a show of its might through large-scale military exercises in the run-up to Taiwan’s first direct presidential elections called by then-president Lee Teng-hui (李登輝).
Designed to intimidate and rattle the electorate, the exercises included test-launching missiles toward the coasts of Keelung and Kaohsiung for several weeks in March. Rather than being cowed into inaction, Taiwanese responded with their votes, resolutely upholding the democratic system.
Thirty years on, it seems that Beijing has still yet to grasp the political lessons of the 1996 crisis.
In an authoritarian countries, external pressure can alter political outcomes; in democracies, threats have the opposite effect, strengthening collective identity and mobilizing voters. That could be why, as China becomes more vocally opposed to specific Taiwanese leaders, voters become more inclined to support those same people.
Of course, the situation across the Taiwan Strait today is different than it was 30 years ago. Although Taiwan’s democracy has matured, there are structural challenges within domestic governance.
Among the most obvious of them is the disorder in the legislature. With the opposition continually blocking the government’s budgets and policy initiatives and even bringing national defense measures to a prolonged standstill in the name of “oversight” and “checks and balances” between the legislature and the executive branch, the government would be hard-pressed to implement even the most basic national security plans.
Another persistent issue has identity. The international community generally knows Taiwan not by its official name, the Republic of China (ROC), but as “Taiwan.”
Naming conventions and institutional arrangements in Taiwan have long been a source of confusion when it comes to international communication.
In light of this, the General Association of Chinese Culture is today changing its official English name to the National Cultural Association of Taiwan. The move is part of an emerging international consensus: Taiwan is, clearly and concretely, its own political and social entity.
Taiwan’s next challenge is to establish a shared and complete consensus on national security.
The government has begun incorporating into the education curriculum topics on understanding China to better equip the next generation with a better appreciation of the Taiwan-China relationship.
At the same time, Taiwan should be helping students understand national defense. It is not just about government spending or military deployment, but a program of long-term investment involving industrial development and international cooperation. For younger Taiwanese, military service as an obligation is about contributing to national development.
The 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis proved that intimidation alone cannot rock Taiwan’s democracy. Thirty years on, it is clear that what Taiwan is facing is no longer just external stressors, but questions of internal unity. Democratic politics can, of course, results in differences of opinion, but the most basic consensus of any mature democratic society should be one that prioritizes strengthening national capabilities and does not let political infighting undermine them.
Wang Hung-jen is a professor in National Cheng Kung University’s Department of Political Science.
Translated by Gilda Knox Streader
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