When it became clear that the world was entering a new era with a radical change in the US’ global stance in US President Donald Trump’s second term, many in Taiwan were concerned about what this meant for the nation’s defense against China. Instability and disruption are dangerous. Chaos introduces unknowns. There was a sense that the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) might have a point with its tendency not to trust the US.
The world order is certainly changing, but concerns about the implications for Taiwan of this disruption left many blind to how the same forces might also weaken China’s hand. Internationally, there has been a flashing warning light on authoritarian regime fragility following the fall of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024 while its weakened Russian ally was distracted in Ukraine, and now the ongoing protests against the theocratic regime in Iran, a government that Beijing supports. Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) is watching a government in Tehran whose handling of international relations led to the economic difficulties that have given its people cause to rise in anger. China’s own economic difficulties make it vulnerable to similar unrest.
Xi’s handling of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s comments in November last year about the possible need to take action in the event of Chinese military action in the Taiwan Strait betrayed his lack of confidence in the People’s Liberation Army to pull off a successful invasion of Taiwan. His weaponization of economic measures, tourist numbers, state propaganda and diplomatic activity was designed to weaken Takaichi’s position domestically, but had the opposite effect. There are now reports that she plans to call a snap election on Feb. 8. Calling an election is not a sign of weakness; it is a sign of confidence in improving one’s hand.
Another example of the realignment of security alliances was the signing of a defense pact between Japan and the Philippines on Thursday, facilitating joint training to boost deterrence against China’s increasingly aggressive stance in the region.
Militarily, the Philippines is probably the weakest regional player. It is in a significantly better position with Japan having its back, and even more so with Takaichi at the helm. If the outcome of the anticipated election falls in her favor, in a way that reflects the polling, Takaichi would be stronger still. Much of her sudden increase in popularity stems from China’s overreaction.
With Japan to the north of Taiwan and the Philippines to the south, the first island chain is looking more intimidating to Xi, who would be loath to see Taiwan, too, improve its military posture. Taiwan’s opposition parties must be giving him a rare cause for celebration.
The KMT and Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) say they support improving Taiwan’s national defense capabilities, but have derailed a review of the government’s defense budget eight times. They have contrived instead to initiate impeachment proceedings against President William Lai (賴清德). They know that the impeachment has no chance of succeeding, but they are seeking their own distraction and chaos, using the impeachment proceedings to burn up legislative resources that would more usefully be spent on the defense budget review.
On Wednesday last week, TPP Chairman Huang Kuo-chang (黃國昌) returned from a whirlwind trip to Washington, where in one day he met officials from the White House US National Security Council, US State Department and defense agencies. Back in Taiwan, he announced that not only was his opposition to the package reinforced by the visit, and that he had plans for proposing a special defense budget of his own, but he also reported that US officials were having doubts about the Lai administration, which the American Institute in Taiwan immediately denied.
The KMT might distrust the US. Huang might be genuine in his stated desire to clarify the finer points of the proposed US$11.1 billion military weapons package before signing off on the government’s use of taxpayers’ money to purchase it. The US wants Taiwan to protect itself because this would protect US interests in the region. The KMT needs to get over this or admit that its legislative intransigence is less about democratic governance than it is about doing Beijing’s work for it. Huang, for his part, needs to stop playing political games, put aside his hatred of the governing party and do his job as an elected representative of the Taiwanese.
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