We are used to hearing that whenever something happens, it means Taiwan is about to fall to China. Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) cannot change the color of his socks without China experts claiming it means an invasion is imminent. So, it is no surprise that what happened in Venezuela over the weekend triggered the knee-jerk reaction of saying that Taiwan is next.
That is not an opinion on whether US President Donald Trump was right to remove Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro the way he did or if it is good for Venezuela and the world. There are other, more qualified people to talk about that — Venezuelans, for a start.
For Taiwan, the incident changes nothing.
What exactly is new about US intervention in Latin America? It used to be so rampant they called it Operation Condor. Do not forget how former US president George W. Bush sat on international law when he invaded Iraq. Again, it is not a judgement on whether it is right, but a challenge to the idea that Maduro’s removal is any sort of turning point: International law has been secondary to might for a long time.
Do you really think China is waiting for the US to give it authorization to do so?
Even if Trump suddenly decided to be the kindest president ever and follow international law down to its minutiae, Beijing would not stop bullying Taiwan. It does not even matter whether it is Trump, former US vice president Kamala Harris or Lisa Simpson who sits in the Oval Office: The US could do anything from outright invasion of a sovereign country to peaceful advocacy, Xi does not care. He will bully Taiwan regardless.
So no, China will not think it is suddenly OK to kidnap Taiwan’s president just because Trump did it somewhere else: Xi has never waited for US validation.
Even if he wanted to, can he pull it off?
Regardless of legality or morality, the kidnapping of Maduro took insane skill. If we want to take a purely selfish, Taiwan-centered point of view, what was demonstrated is that Taiwan’s main security partner is capable of pulling off an action-movie type of operation, while China can just circle its boats and shoot missiles into the water.
Remember, Taiwan is no pushover. It is much more powerful and better armed than the Maduro regime. It would be far less likely such a kidnapping would work in Taipei.
The bottom line is that as far as Taiwan is concerned, what happened in Venezuela is a wake-up call to all countries who get cozy with Beijing and Moscow, and buy into their narrative that they are the rising stars on the global stage: Do not expect China and Russia to save you, so think twice before repeating their rhetoric that Taiwanese have no right to exist.
Last, but not least, would it even be a good idea for China to kidnap President William Lai (賴清德)? No one knows what is going to happen to Venezuela. No one knows if Trump would live to regret it. No one knows what kind of resistance whoever takes office in Caracas would meet — notwithstanding, once more, the morality of it.
Resist lazy analogies. Whatever is done by Washington in Venezuela or anywhere else, however harshly Trump tramples on international law, would never change the fact that Xi would use all means necessary to pressure Taiwan, and the US suddenly becoming good global citizens would not appease him anyway.
The only thing that could keep China out of Taiwan is the risk that attacking it would lead to the total destruction of Xi’s regime. Everything else is irrelevant.
Julien Oeuillet hosts the weekly program Taiwan vs The World on Radio Taiwan International and is a coproducer of TaiwanTalks on TaiwanPlus.
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