Thu, Dec 11, 2025 page8

• Taiwan the winner in Honduras

  • By Juan Fernando Herrera Ramos
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  More than a week after Hondurans voted, the country still does not know who will be its next president. The Honduran National Electoral Council has not declared a winner, and the transmission of results has experienced repeated malfunctions that interrupted updates for almost 24 hours at times.

  The delay has become the second-longest post-electoral silence since the election of former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernandez of the National Party in 2017, which was tainted by accusations of fraud. Once again, this has raised concerns among observers, civil society groups and the international community.

  The preliminary results remain close, but both the Liberty and Refoundation (Libre) party, and the Liberal Party of Salvador Nasralla have publicly accused the National Party of Nasry Asfura of attempting fraud once again, citing mismatches between their poll station copies and the data uploaded by the electoral authority.

  The National Party has denied wrongdoing and has said that Libre was the party that attempted fraud. Both opposition parties have published images of their tally sheets across social media platforms, arguing that the discrepancies appear systematic rather than isolated.

  They have also pointed to the sudden interruption of the transmission system as a reason for increased public suspicion. Supporters of Liberal and Libre parties have mobilized, demanding transparency and a definitive count. International attention has intensified. The Organization of American States and the EU have expressed concern, emphasizing the need for a transparent review of contested reports.

  Yet despite the chaos, one geopolitical outcome has become clear. In an election where tensions have risen inside Honduras, the only unquestionable winner so far is Taiwan.

  While Hondurans debate who would become president, the broader strategic landscape has revealed something that did not exist five years ago. Both major opposition forces want a return to diplomatic relations with Taiwan. The Libre party that switched recognition to China in 2023 was not competitive in this election, received negligible support and played no meaningful role in shaping the national conversation.

  The National Party and the Liberal Party have expressed openness to restoring ties with Taipei as part of a wider foreign policy repositioning that includes strengthening democratic partnerships and rebuilding confidence with the US.

  This situation means that regardless of who ultimately wins once the electoral authority certifies the result, Honduras is positioned for a diplomatic correction that favors Taiwan. Multiple national surveys conducted during the campaign showed declining confidence in the promises made by Beijing and rising public interest in re-engaging with Taiwan. Small business owners, farmers and scholarship recipients repeatedly expressed regret over the loss of Taiwanese programs that had been in place for decades.

  That shift has regional implications. Central American experiments with recognition of China have been unstable, and Honduras might become the clearest example that the promised gains fail to materialize. Beijing’s economic commitments did not translate into sustained investment, and the loss of Taiwan’s development cooperation removed concrete programs that communities had relied upon for years.

  If Honduras returns to Taiwan, it would be the first country in Central America to reverse a switch toward Beijing in the 21st century, marking a significant geopolitical moment.

  Taiwan stands in a stronger position than before the vote. It has become a point of agreement inside a deeply polarized country. It has outlasted the temporary political tide that pushed Honduras toward Beijing. Most notably, it has gained bipartisan consensus without campaigning for it. Taiwanese policymakers would view this moment as evidence that long-term partnerships built on education, agricultural cooperation, medical brigades and institution-building create resilience even when governments change.

  Taipei would also see an opportunity in the fact that the Honduran public debate has shifted away from ideology. During the campaign, neither opposition party treated relations with Taiwan as a symbol of national sovereignty or resistance to foreign influence. Instead, both framed the issue as a practical matter of national interest. That shift in tone could give Taiwan greater freedom to rebuild programs without being drawn into ideological battles.

  For Beijing, the situation is more complicated. The election exposes a weakness in China’s diplomatic approach in the region, which has relied heavily on symbolic victories rather than on sustainable long-term engagement. A reversal by Honduras would raise questions about the durability of China’s influence in Central America and the reliability of its economic commitments.

  The electoral dispute would continue as the National Electoral Council reviews contested reports and addresses irregularities. A final declaration might still take time — the 2017 election was not finalized until Dec. 17 of that year — but the geopolitical message has already been delivered. The Honduran people did not endorse the shift toward China. They did not support the party that championed that decision. They elevated political forces that have openly considered a return to Taiwan.

  In an election defined by uncertainty, delays and malfunctions, Taiwan is the only actor that seems to have secured a strategic victory.

  Juan Fernando Herrera Ramos is a Honduran journalist based in Taipei.
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