China is moving to the next phase of its rivalry with the US and signaling a renewed focus on self-reliance. Whether in innovation, industry or advanced technology, Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) is betting this approach would ensure Beijing’s resilience amid intensifying competition.
This is not just about the economy. It is also about security. Beijing and Washington last month agreed to a one-year pause in trade hostilities, but instability will define their relationship for years to come.
While this is not a new strategy, Xi is doubling down in the face of the trade war and a slowing domestic economy. Last month’s export figures showed an unexpected slump, highlighting the challenges Beijing faces. The party’s Fourth Plenum last month offered some clues about the president’s priorities. Held once every five years, the gathering is made up of the Chinese Communist Party’s inner circle and, together with Xi, they set the course for party affairs and ideology.
Illustration: Mountain People
In the communique, officials elevated science and technology as the pillars of the next five-year plan, to be finalized in March. These are not empty slogans.
Beijing sees US President Donald Trump as an agent of chaos and is preparing for a more turbulent global economy, a new paper by Asia Society Policy Institute fellow Neil Thomas and institute senior research associate Lobsang Tsering said.
China is using US pressure as a catalyst to accelerate domestic innovation, by pumping money into its local firms. It is focusing on sectors such as aerospace, artificial intelligence (AI) and quantum computing, and reducing dependence on foreign suppliers. Beijing is not alone in pursuing a strategy of self-reliance. India has a similar, if less successful, policy to encourage domestic manufacturing and reduce dependence on imports, as does the US.
The world’s second-largest economy has pushed ahead with military-civil fusion, gathering the most advanced civilian research from around the globe and using it to modernize its defense forces. This allows China to develop dual-use technologies, so that breakthroughs in AI, chips or supercomputing flow directly to the military. Under Xi, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army has transformed into a sophisticated force capable of operating well beyond China’s borders.
Still, this plan faces challenges — and not just from Washington. Xi’s sweeping anti-corruption campaign and purges have hollowed out the ranks of the party’s inner circle and the military.
Only 168 of the CCP’s 205 Central Committee members showed up at the plenum, the lowest attendance for the session since the Cultural Revolution, Bloomberg’s tally showed.
There is no sign Xi’s power is slipping. The CCP reaffirmed its call to “unite more closely around the Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core,” reflecting the leader’s continued dominance. However, his legitimacy lies in being able to deliver continued economic prosperity to his citizens, and Trump’s trade war is making that difficult.
Today, the US holds the upper hand, because it controls the advanced technology China needs. That edge would fade if Beijing builds an ecosystem it can genuinely rely on. The world has already seen what happens when the CCP decides it wants to succeed in a specific industry. Over the past decade, state-led heavy investment has made China a leader in green industries such as solar panels, batteries and electric vehicles. It is looking to repeat that playbook in semiconductors, advanced machinery, biotechnology and quantum computing.
The implications are profound. The US’ technological leverage would wane and global supply chains could tilt further toward China’s orbit. To avoid that outcome, the US and its allies must act now by investing in alternative supply chains and networks of allies. Pushing ahead with the Promoting Resilient Supply Chains Act, which passed the US Senate unanimously in June, but is now facing delays, would be wise. External pressure on Beijing is useful, but Washington must also shore up its own industrial base.
US companies that want to do business in China should also expect heavier state intervention, tighter trade and investment conditions, and a widening of export controls. Yet this moment also presents an opportunity. China’s system might look formidable, but it is not invincible. It is facing deep structural issues, from a property slump and local government debt to demographic decline.
Preparing for the worst-case scenario is the best way to outwit an opponent. Xi is building a China that relies on itself. The US needs to be ready for that.
Karishma Vaswani is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Asia politics with a special focus on China. Previously, she was the BBC’s lead Asia presenter, and worked for the BBC across Asia and South Asia for two decades. This column reflects the personal views of the author and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
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