The world has overwhelmingly welcomed the fragile Middle East peace deal brokered by US President Donald Trump, but in Southeast Asia, home to fast-growing economies and a vital pillar of Indo-Pacific security, that relief is tinged with skepticism.
Islam is the faith of about half of the region’s more than 600 million people, so solidarity with Palestinians has always meant that US support for Israel is a politically fraught issue. Now, those concerns are spreading beyond religious lines. From Kuala Lumpur to Jakarta to Bangkok, anger over the destruction in Gaza has deepened doubts about whether Washington has different standards for how it applies international law. Muslim-majority Malaysia and Indonesia have voiced frustration with what they view as Washington’s unquestioning support of Tel Aviv.
If the Trump administration is serious about countering China’s growing influence in Southeast Asia, it would have to confront the resentment stirred by the conflict, or risk losing the good will previous US administrations have worked hard to build.
Illustration: Kevin Sheu
The State of Southeast Asia survey by the Singapore-based ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute provides a revealing snapshot. Last year, it identified the Israel-Hamas conflict — rather than disputes over the South China Sea — as the region’s top geopolitical concern.
The US’ close relationship with Israel has had a direct impact on public opinion. For the first time, more respondents among the 10-member ASEAN said they would align with China (50.5 percent) over the US (49.5 percent) if forced to choose. This year, the survey showed a slight rebound for the US, but Southeast Asians still view the US as choosing its loyalties to Israel over everything else.
“If the US sees competition with China as persistent, then it has an incentive to keep key regions such as Southeast Asia on side,” said Chong Ja Ian (莊嘉穎), an associate professor in political science at the National University of Singapore.
“Washington’s almost unqualified support for Israel strains relationships with Southeast Asian states and populations,” Chong added.
Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has been the most vocal critic of Israel in the region. He has called Israel’s actions barbaric, and accused the US and Europe of hypocrisy for demanding condemnation of Hamas, while he says they are ignoring civilian deaths in Gaza. No doubt his support for the group designated a terrorist organization by the US and the EU is problematic for them, but his comments have resonated with fellow Muslims. Malaysia has the second-biggest Muslim population in Southeast Asia.
In Indonesia, the world’s most populous Muslim nation, strikes on the Indonesian hospital in Gaza transformed initial sympathy into fury at Israel. Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto has reaffirmed support for Palestinian statehood and offered to temporarily host displaced Palestinians seeking refuge.
However, this is not solely a Muslim issue. For younger generations in Southeast Asia, as in many other countries, Gaza is increasingly framed in terms of human rights and suffering, rather than religious solidarity.
In Singapore, where public protests are generally restricted, the government prohibited displays of Palestinian and Israeli flags to preserve social harmony in the tightly controlled multireligious and multiracial nation. Still, quiet acts of defiance have emerged: banners hung in public spaces, small vigils and hunger strikes urging an end to Singapore’s arms trade with Israel.
The Philippines, the third-largest buyer of Israeli weapons, stands out as the region’s most enduring pro-Tel Aviv voice. It was the only Asian country to recognize the state of Israel in 1947. In 2023, it chose to abstain during a vote at the UN General Assembly on a resolution that called for an immediate humanitarian truce between Israel and Hamas, the only Southeast Asian country to do so. It sparked protests in Manila. However, even there, public pressure over the mounting civilian death toll in Gaza had an impact. Last month, the Philippines announced that Manila would halt any new arms contracts with Israeli suppliers although existing agreements would still be honored.
Thailand, too, has been drawn in. The country recorded the largest number of foreign nationals killed or missing in the Oct. 7, 2023, assault. The Thai government has pledged neutrality, but public opinion remains polarized between vocal pro-Palestine and pro-Israel factions.
The outrage has also translated into consumer choices. In Malaysia and Indonesia, the conflict has triggered broad boycotts of Western brands perceived as aligned with Israel. Berjaya Food Bhd, operator of Starbucks in Malaysia, posted a record net loss this year, citing the prolonged impact of Gaza-related sentiment. McDonald’s Malaysia blamed a boycott from pro-Palestinian activists for a dip in its profits, which it said had resulted in closures and job cuts.
Whether Southeast Asia’s disillusionment with the US is a temporary reaction or a longer-lasting reality depends in part on how long peace would last, and whether the destruction in Gaza ends. Since the end of World War II, Washington’s influence in the region has depended on a combination of security guarantees, economic ties, and trust and consistency.
Beijing, which has cast itself as a champion of the “global south” and a critic of the US’ double standards, is waiting for the opportunity to highlight Washington’s flaws. This deal could be the moment to reset the US’ image. It should not waste it.
Karishma Vaswani is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Asia politics with a special focus on China. Previously, she was the BBC’s lead Asia presenter and worked for the BBC across Asia and South Asia for two decades. This column reflects the personal views of the author and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
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