The dust has settled after Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) 12-day-long presidential election. Sanae Takaichi and Japanese Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Shinjiro Koizumi led the five-candidate race, which proceeded to a parliamentary vote after neither candidate secured more than 50 percent in the first round of voting. From within the overwhelmingly male Japanese National Diet, Takaichi emerged victorious, becoming the LDP’s first female leader.
With the LDP as Japan’s governing party, Takaichi is poised to become Japan’s 104th prime minister and make history as the first woman to do so.
In the 140 years since the establishment of a Cabinet system during the Meiji Restoration, Takaichi’s election is the first of its kind — the ascension of a woman in the male-dominated Diet is set to change the face of Japanese politics.
Takaichi’s rise was not by luck. In 2021, she made her first bid for the top job with the support of former Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe. After his death, Abe’s faction disintegrated, but Takichi remained faithful to his political program and became the successor to his legacy.
Early in the leadership race, Koizumi’s character and popularity with the media had him in the lead, but personability does not necessarily equal strength. As the debates unfolded, what was perceived as hollow rhetoric led to a decline in his support levels, while Takaichi enjoyed a surge of support from returning conservative voters.
There are five key factors behind Takaichi’s election:
She consolidated the LDP’s conservative camp as Abe’s political successor. After bearing witness to the threat represented by Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平), Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un appearing side by side at China’s recent military parade, conservative sentiment in Japan has been rising. Takaichi represents an answer to this.
The efficacy of her active fiscal and loose monetary policies: as a continuation of “Abenomics,” Takaichi’s policy program lined up with the public’s expectations.
Koizumi was seen as a continuation candidate of Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who announced his resignation last month. Ishiba’s government was misaligned with the public, and after three election failures in a year, his policy platform had been rejected by voters.
Koizumi’s campaign team came under fire for soliciting positive posts and comments on social media. A visit to Manila just two days prior to the election further damaged his image.
LDP members retained a clear head in passing judgement. Not taken in by the initial wave of positive media around Koizumi, they instead made a sober decision in an effort to protect the party’s best interests.
True to her commitment to uphold Abe’s legacy, Takaichi is clear on her position of fostering positive relations with the US and Taiwan, and once briefly worked in the US as a congressional fellow. Taiwan and Japan can expect to look forward to strengthening ties, with the political memory of former president Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) and Takaichi’s friendliness.
During his premiership, Ishiba attempted to play both sides between the US and China in a move that ultimately lost the LDP its substantial base of conservative voters. Koizumi’s candidacy ran the risk of repeating those same mistakes. Takaichi’s victory is not just a milestone for women in Japan, but represents a rebirth for the LDP and a revitalization of the party’s spirit.
With a volatile international backdrop, we can hope that Takaichi can steer the LDP forward toward the common values of freedom and democracy.
Wang Hui-sheng is a founding member of the East Asia Research Institute.
Translated by Gilda Knox Streader
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