An official on Monday confirmed the cancelation of the annual Taipei-Shanghai Twin-City Forum due to disagreement on the content of a memorandum of understanding, adding that Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an (蔣萬安) refused to mention the so-called “1992 consensus” in his remarks.
The cancelation was tied to Beijing’s attempt to use the forum to score political points. Beijing aimed to leverage the forum to pressure Chiang to take a stronger political stance to regain lost ground. Minister of Foreign Affairs Lin Chia-lung (林佳龍) recently visited the US and Europe, and Mainland Affairs Council Minister Chiu Chui-cheng (邱垂正) led a delegation to Washington early last month. In the most recent phone call between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平), the US made no concessions on Taiwan. Beijing sees this year’s forum as its greatest chance at regaining leverage.
The relationship between Taiwan, the US and China has evolved. Washington has raised the issue of Taiwan’s undetermined status, rendering the 1972 Shanghai Communique — in which the US “acknowledged” the Chinese government’s “one China” stance that “Taiwan is a part of China” — all but ineffective.
Then-Chinese premier Zhou Enlai (周恩來) pressured then-US secretary of state Henry Kissinger to abandon the position that Taiwan’s status was undetermined, as that was then the legal opinion held by the US Department of State. Kissinger promised Zhou that future US administrations would no longer promote that stance. However, Beijing was still uneasy, which is why the Shanghai Communique explicitly states that Beijing opposes the notion of Taiwan’s undetermined status.
This issue did not reappear in subsequent communiques, indicating that Taiwan’s status was no longer a central point of contention. Now the US is reviving the issue, Beijing has been caught off guard. This signals more explicitly that the US rejects the position of Taiwan being a part of China, and brings renewed clarity over whether the US ever recognized China’s territorial claim over Taiwan — or merely acknowledged it.
Beijing has yet to find effective leverage to pressure Washington into reversing its position on Taiwan’s status. China is now placing its hopes on the upcoming meeting between Trump and Xi at the APEC summit in South Korea later this month. The focus of China’s pressure seems to be shifting from the US to Taiwan — in particular, the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT). The Taipei-Shanghai Twin-City Forum is the most official channel for engagement between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, so Beijing naturally intends to elevate its political implications.
As the forum is to be held in China, it is not surprising that Beijing is calculating how it could be used to earn political points. How would Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference Chairman Wang Huning (王滬寧) handle the forum? Would he arrange a meeting with Chiang? More importantly, how would he push Chiang to make a statement aligning with Beijing’s position?
With mayoral elections next year, any act by Chiang seen as diminishing Taiwan’s status could quickly become a central issue in his campaign. Thus, the Taipei City Government might now be shifting the blame onto the central government to avoid the dilemma altogether. Rather than continuing to be manipulated by Beijing, the KMT should call on China to acknowledge Taiwan’s sovereign status. Only exchanges done on the basis of equality and mutual respect hold real significance — otherwise, the Taipei-Shanghai Twin-City Forum is a stage for China’s “united front” propaganda.
Lin Tzu-yao is from Kaohsiung and a doctoral student in political science at National Taiwan University.
Translated by Kyra Gustavsen
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