North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s trip to Beijing this week offered the reclusive young leader an unprecedented opportunity to stand beside partners from China and Russia, gain implicit support for his banned nuclear weapons and expand his diplomatic circle.
Kim rode into the Chinese capital in his signature armored train on Tuesday, ahead of his attendance at a military parade held by China on Wednesday to commemorate the end of World War II. He had never attended a world event with so many other foreign leaders, and it marked one of his most momentous diplomatic moves since holding historic summits with US President Donald Trump during his first term, analysts and South Korean officials said.
While more than two dozen national leaders attended, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Kim flanked Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) on either side during the parade.
Illustration: Mountain People
“It’s elevating North Korea’s position to kind of the big boys, and then Kim can project that image back home like he did with his summit with Donald Trump, he can really show off his world statesman side,” Asia Society senior fellow John Delury said. “Kim Jong-un is a global brand.”
Some Western analysts have dubbed the trio an “Axis of Upheaval,” but South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) told lawmakers in Seoul on Tuesday that the event might be unlikely to lead to real trilateral cooperation soon.
However, what is more clear is the political, economic and military benefits to Kim and North Korea, which is under numerous international sanctions for its nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs, and the government’s human rights abuses.
“This China visit is a bold move by Kim Jong-un as he makes a debut in multilateral diplomacy by displaying the optics of allying with China and Russia, and it’s likely he will go on to take dramatic steps both domestically and internationally,” South Korean lawmaker Lee Seong-kweun told reporters after a closed-door briefing by the intelligence agency.
South Korea’s parliament speaker also attended the event and said on Tuesday that he would raise the issue of peace on the peninsula if he got a chance to see Kim, but a meeting did not happen.
Kim visited North Korean missile production facilities immediately before leaving for China, underscoring the country’s status as a nuclear power, Seoul-based Institute for National Unification senior research fellow Hong Min said.
“In addition, North Korea’s legitimacy for possessing nuclear weapons is indirectly supported by watching and applauding a military parade featuring China’s advanced [nuclear] weapons,” he said.
Kim in 2023 embarked on a significant diplomatic gambit with Putin that led to summits in Russia and in North Korea, a mutual defense treaty, and the sending of thousands of troops and weapons for Russia’s war in Ukraine.
The Beijing visit would help restore North Korea’s relations with China, which have frayed as Kim cultivated those Russian ties, and help Pyongyang secure economic aid in the face of continued sanctions, the NIS said.
It could also help Kim hedge his bets in case the war in Ukraine winds down and Russia no longer needs as much help, and could send signals to Washington by displaying China’s support, the NIS added.
“From Kim’s perspective, this visit and these events present nothing but opportunities and benefits,” Stimson Center nonresident Michael Madden said, adding that the last time a North Korean leader was present at a big, multilateral event such as this outside the country was in 1959.
Beyond Xi and Putin, Kim would have his first chance to meet with leaders of many countries, even if only informally, and potentially expand cooperation or simply make a first impression on otherwise wary officials, Madden said.
“As we have seen in the past, the impact of the North Korean leader’s presence, shorn of the trappings of the... propaganda machine, is almost always disarming to foreign leaders,” he said. “Foreign leadership who have avoided North Korea may change their minds if they meet Kim.”
The event was attended by leaders of a number of countries that have a history of purchasing arms from North Korea, including Russia, Iran, Myanmar and Pakistan.
“I do believe that the sales for weapons are one of the purposes of this visit,” Asan Institute research fellow Yang Uk said.
However, that is likely secondary to the political messaging, and given that UN Security Council resolutions technically remain in force on North Korea, any arms deals would have to happen under the table, he said.
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