Mon, Sep 01, 2025 page8

• Guermantes Lailari On Taiwan: First Island Treaty Organization: A Necessity

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  “History does not repeat itself, but it rhymes” (attributed to Mark Twain).

  The USSR was the international bully during the Cold War as it sought to make the world safe for Soviet-style Communism. China is now the global bully as it applies economic power and invests in Mao’s (毛澤東) magic weapons (the People’s Liberation Army [PLA], the United Front Work Department, and the Chinese Communist Party [CCP]) to achieve world domination. Freedom-loving countries must respond to the People’s Republic of China (PRC), especially in the Indo-Pacific (IP), as resolutely as they did against the USSR.

  In 1954, the US and its allies created the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO) to prevent communist expansion in Southeast Asia. A year later, US allies created the Baghdad Pact, later called the Central Treaty Organization (CENTO), to protect the Middle East against the USSR. Over time, actions taken by these organizations did not align with their original purpose, and they were disbanded by 1979. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), established with twelve countries in 1949, survived due to the persistent threat of the USSR/Russia. NATO now consists of thirty-two countries.

  

  In early August 1954, President Dwight D. Eisenhower and Secretary of State John Foster Dulles proposed creating a collective security system uniting the US with Japan, South Korea, and the Republic of China (Taiwan) in an anti-communist alliance called the Northeast Asia Treaty Organization (NEATO) to deter future aggression by the PRC and the DPRK. Political challenges and constitutional differences in Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, and the US led American diplomats to stick with bilateral security arrangements with each state, often called a hub and spoke security architecture or the “San Francisco System” rather than a multilateral alliance such as the regional NEATO proposal.

  Although the USSR dissolved in 1991, Russian military aggressions persisted such as in Transnistria (Moldova) (1990–1992), First Chechen War (1994–96), Second Chechen War (1999–2009), invasion of Georgia (Abkhazia and South Ossetia) (2008), occupation of Crimea (2014–present), War in Donbas (2014–present), Syrian civil war (2015–present), and invasion of Ukraine (2022–present).

  At over US$300 billion, the PRC military budget is greater than the combined budgets of all Indo-Pacific countries. The PRC’s spending has enabled a massive rearmament, especially maritime and air assets, and nuclear weapons. The US government (USG) and think tanks estimate the PRC’s defense budget is grossly underreported. Estimating the PRC’s national security budget using a purchasing power metric reveals China’s budget is closer to US$700 billion and closer to the US defense budget. China emphasizes offensive military power such as naval power, air power, nuclear weapons, and technologies like cyber and space capabilities. In contrast, other countries in the region invest primarily in defensive weapons focusing on asymmetric warfare, missile defense, and domestic arms production.

  The CCP threat has risen dramatically since the late 1990s. In response, IP countries are considering creating a collective security organization to protect themselves and their interests.

  I propose calling the new collective security organization the First Island Treaty Organization (FITO). FITO, like NATO, would be created with an initial core group of countries that already have bilateral defense treaties with the US, such as Japan (1951), Philippines (1951), and South Korea (1953). These countries: (1) are democratic IP countries, (2) have multilateral security relationships between each other, and (3) are threatened by the PRC and/or the DPRK. The USG designated these three alliance countries to be major non-NATO allies (MNNAs), and their weapon systems and training are designed to NATO standards. Additionally, the USG designated Australia, Thailand, and New Zealand as MNNAs and they could also join FITO should all relevant parties agree. Most importantly, Taiwan, according to US law, is an MNNA. Therefore, eight IP countries could be FITO members: Japan, Philippines, South Korea, Thailand, the US, Australia, New Zealand, and Taiwan. Canada could also join, since it is a NATO ally and an IP country.

  Additional countries, such as Singapore, Papua New Guinea, and India, could choose to be full members or associate members based on their own national caveats and interests, and the interests of FITO members.

  India and Japan are the best IP examples of states that have multiple agreements with countries in the region.

  Highlights of India’s security agreements include the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) (2007), four foundational security agreements with the US and other defense agreements, and an Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement (ACSA) with Japan (2020).

  Japan concluded security agreements with regional states and the US to include the Quad (2007), two trilateral security agreements with Australia and the US (2017 and 2023), a Joint Declaration on Security Cooperation and a Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA) with Australia (2022), and an RAA with the Philippines (2025).

  These agreements create connective tissue or lattices that strengthen IP relationships and reinforce mutual commitments to each other and their common defense against a common threat — like the famous phrase: “united we stand, divided we fall.”

  European countries could also join as full or associate members with each of their own national caveats that will determine their support against aggression by the axis of authoritarian regimes such as China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea (CRINK). Some European countries have bilateral and multilateral security agreements in the region, such as the UK and Japan RAA (2023), Five Power Defense Arrangements (FPDA) involving Australia, Malaysia, New Zealand, Singapore, and the United Kingdom (1971), the Australia-UK-US (AUKUS) trilateral security pact (2021), and UK-Australia Treaty of Geelong (2025).

  France has important national interests in the region: It controls a vast amount of territory consisting of a combined area of approximately 9 million square kilometers (slightly smaller than the PRC, the US, or Canada) in the IP. Combined with its other territories spread around the world, France has the world’s largest exclusive economic zone (EEZ) covering approximately 11,691,000 km2, followed by the US with 11,351,000 km2, and Australia with 8,505,348 km2.

  Approximately 1.6 million French citizens live in these French IP territories along with another 190,000 living throughout the IP. France defends its territory with 7,000 military permanently deployed in five military commands, and during deployments to train and exercise with friendly countries. France also is negotiating an RAA with Japan, and a Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) with the Philippines.

  The UK also has interests in the IP associated with the UK’s alliances (FPDA), and relationships with former colonies (Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Malaysia, India, and Pakistan), and Commonwealth countries. The UK deploys troops in the IP: About 910 UK military personnel support the Sultanate of Brunei, 4,000 support the Royal Navy Carrier Battle Group during 2025, and surges personnel to support exercises, training, and contingencies.

  Future security arrangements could emerge between IP countries and between IP and European countries.

  Meanwhile, the PRC, Russia, and North Korea negotiated security pacts. The PRC has one publicly acknowledged formal security alliance, the Sino-North Korean Mutual Aid Treaty (1961). And most disturbingly, both Russia and China have security arrangements with the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI). Russia and Iran signed a Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership on 17 January 2025 for the next twenty years and Iran cooperation in Russia’s war against Ukraine. In March 2021, China and Iran signed a 25-year Comprehensive Strategic Partnership worth up to US$400 billion including security, defense, and intelligence cooperation, according to the New York Times.

  Recall that Iran is a state sponsor of terrorism and directly supports Islamic terrorist groups in the Middle East such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis. Russia, China, and Iran support the Houthis in targeting shipping in the Red Sea. Iran also directly provides Russia with weapons to support its war against Ukraine.

  The PRC signed a Treaty of Friendship & Cooperation with Ukraine (2013) and failed to defend Ukraine from Russian aggression. The PRC has a Security Strategic Partnership with Djibouti (2014) and an acknowledged overseas naval base. Russia and China also signed the Sino-Russian Treaty of Friendship (2001, 2021), Road Map for Military Cooperation for 2021–2025, and the Sino-Russian Joint Statement No Limits Partnership (2022) resulting in CCP support for Russia against Ukraine.

  Most concerning is the Solomon Islands-China Security Pact (2022) established through elite capture.

  Finally, in late 2024, the DPRK and Russia signed a Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, the DPRK’s second security agreement with another nuclear armed superpower after China. In effect, the PRC, Russia the DPRK, and IRI have bilateral security agreements and they could create or have already created their own multilateral alliance structure as demonstrated so flagrantly in the Russian-Ukrainian war.

  Today, we face an analogous challenge of an expansionist communist regime that we faced during the Cold War. We need to recreate an alliance structure to address the dangerous CCP threat.

  Deterrence of the CCP is rapidly failing. The US should establish FITO to counter the CCP’s continuing aggression against the First Island Chain countries. Hopefully, by creating this organization, the CCP will delay their ambitions of global domination. Either we create this new alliance now to prevent regional or global war, or war will force us to create it: “Si vis pacem, para bellum” (“If you want peace, prepare for war”).

  Guermantes Lailari is a retired US Air Force Foreign Area officer specializing in counterterrorism, irregular warfare, missile defense, and strategy. He holds advanced degrees in international relations and strategic intelligence. He was a Ministry of Foreign Affairs Taiwan Fellow in 2022, a visiting scholar at National Chengchi University and National Defense University in 2023, and is a visiting researcher at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research in 2024.
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