Much like the first round on July 26, Saturday’s second wave of recall elections — this time targeting seven Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) lawmakers — also failed. With all 31 KMT legislators who faced recall this summer secure in their posts, the mass recall campaign has come to an end.
The outcome was unsurprising. Last month’s across-the-board defeats had already dealt a heavy blow to the morale of recall advocates and the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), while bolstering the confidence of the KMT and its ally the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP).
It seemed a foregone conclusion that recalls would falter, as these were the districts where campaigners had struggled to collect enough petition signatures to meet the threshold for the recall stage. In none of Saturday’s contests did “yes” votes meet the legal threshold of one-quarter of eligible voters, while “no” votes averaged 65 percent of valid ballots.
The outcome ensures that the DPP remains in the minority in the legislature, continuing to constrain President William Lai (賴清德) and his administration’s ability to advance their policies. What lessons lawmakers might draw from the recall defeats and whether they are willing to adapt their approaches remains uncertain.
KMT legislators, led by KMT caucus whip Fu Kun-chi (?), are expected to maintain their hardline tactics in pushing legislation, and could feel emboldened to force through controversial bills. Yet the party’s leadership is unsettled. Chairman Eric Chu (朱立倫) has said he would not seek re-election in the Oct. 18 chairmanship race. While Chu on Saturday urged Taichung Mayor Lu Shiow-yen (盧秀燕) to succeed him, she ruled herself out yesterday.
Meanwhile, the TPP is preparing for an internal reshuffle in January, when it is expected to rotate out all seven of its legislators-at-large after two years, including Chairman Huang Kuo-chang (黃國昌). Although the recalls left KMT lawmakers secure in their seats, they also bolstered Huang’s ambitions — particularly his bid to extract greater concessions from the KMT, including support for a possible New Taipei City mayoral run. That could set the stage for friction between the two opposition parties in the months ahead.
The DPP is also expected to make changes in hopes of regaining momentum ahead of next year’s local elections. On Saturday, Lai pledged to recalibrate his Cabinet and policy priorities, while expressing a desire for deeper dialogue with the Legislative Yuan, without offering specifics on how this might be achieved.
Lai and the Cabinet must take the initiative in opening lines of communication with the legislature and the opposition parties, while putting forward policies that can be tangibly felt by the public and seen as directly improving livelihoods — the kind of policies that opposition lawmakers would be hesitant to block.
Rather than allowing ministries to respond passively to opposition criticism, the Cabinet must improve cross-ministerial coordination and long-term planning, and present a more coherent and hopeful blueprint for the nation’s prosperity and security.
The DPP must also engage in self-reflection, clarify its core values and decide which principles warrant an uncompromising stance. At the same time, it needs to enhance its public communication to build support for those priorities, while identifying areas where flexibility could allow for more effective negotiations with the opposition.
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