Taiwan must shape the information space early to avoid being blamed for escalation if it responds with force to Chinese incursions, a former US Navy intelligence head said on Friday last week.
In such a scenario, Taiwan should seek to frame Chinese forces as aggressors and a threat to the entire region, former US Office of Naval Intelligence commander Mike Studeman told the Central News Agency when asked to comment on the outcome of a tabletop war game held in Taipei last week.
The exercise simulated a Chinese naval intrusion into Taiwan’s territorial waters in 2030.
In the war game, Taiwan chose not to immediately strike the Chinese navy vessels to avoid being blamed for an escalation.
However, former US officials participating in the exercise said that Taiwan might eventually need to open fire to expel Chinese intruders, but added that it should give them advance warning.
Taiwan’s failure to demonstrate resolve would “only invite deeper and unacceptable encroachments,” Studeman said.
Taiwan is guided by concern that the US would not come to its aid if it were to be seen as the cause of escalation. The Taiwan fact sheet on the US Department of State Web site reads: “We oppose any unilateral changes to the status quo from either side. We expect cross-Strait differences to be resolved by peaceful means, free from coercion, in a manner acceptable to the people on both sides of the Strait.”
It is highly unlikely that any country’s administration would blame Taiwan if it were to fire upon a foreign navy that failed to leave its waters following a warning. It is also unlikely that a US decision to intervene to assist with Taiwan’s defense during a conflict would be contingent upon Taiwan not defending itself. If anything, the US would probably be more reluctant to intervene if Taiwan did not fire upon a foreign aggressor challenging its sovereignty and ignoring warning calls.
A US president’s decision on whether to help defend Taiwan would partially depend on Taipei’s ability and willingness to defend itself, retired US admiral and former US Pacific Fleet commander Dennis Blair said on Wednesday last week.
Last week’s tabletop exercises concluded that Taiwan might need to resist an invasion attempt for a few months to give allies time to assist. Part of Taiwan’s ability to do so would hinge upon a timely response to the initial phase of the attempt. If China were to be able to land a contingent of troops on Taiwan proper before Taiwanese forces even fired a shot, that would allow China to carry out sabotage missions.
Commenting on the tabletop exercise, a source on Sunday said that during the simulation, the Taiwanese team put forces in a state of heightened readiness and surveillance after Chinese vessels entered Taiwan’s territorial waters. Presumably, in a real-life scenario, Taiwanese forces would already be on heightened alert whenever Chinese vessels cross the median line of the Taiwan Strait. They should be prepared to open fire before the Chinese vessels even reached 12 nautical miles (22.2km) from Taiwan’s shore, if the vessels’ crews failed to explain the encroachment and stayed their course toward shore.
In April there was a public outcry online after a Chinese cruise ship, the Gulangyu (鼓浪嶼號), sailed within 2 nautical miles of Pingtung County’s Hengchun Peninsula. Following the incident, one analyst said that China could transport hundreds of troops to Taiwan undetected using such a vessel.
Taiwan should invest heavily in its coast guard, including through the purchase of sea and underwater drones, so that it can effectively monitor its extensive coastlines. It should also establish a clear protocol for engaging Chinese vessels that intrude into its territorial waters, and have the resolve to fire upon intruders in a timely manner if necessary.
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