Taiwan must shape the information space early to avoid being blamed for escalation if it responds with force to Chinese incursions, a former US Navy intelligence head said on Friday last week.
In such a scenario, Taiwan should seek to frame Chinese forces as aggressors and a threat to the entire region, former US Office of Naval Intelligence commander Mike Studeman told the Central News Agency when asked to comment on the outcome of a tabletop war game held in Taipei last week.
The exercise simulated a Chinese naval intrusion into Taiwan’s territorial waters in 2030.
In the war game, Taiwan chose not to immediately strike the Chinese navy vessels to avoid being blamed for an escalation.
However, former US officials participating in the exercise said that Taiwan might eventually need to open fire to expel Chinese intruders, but added that it should give them advance warning.
Taiwan’s failure to demonstrate resolve would “only invite deeper and unacceptable encroachments,” Studeman said.
Taiwan is guided by concern that the US would not come to its aid if it were to be seen as the cause of escalation. The Taiwan fact sheet on the US Department of State Web site reads: “We oppose any unilateral changes to the status quo from either side. We expect cross-Strait differences to be resolved by peaceful means, free from coercion, in a manner acceptable to the people on both sides of the Strait.”
It is highly unlikely that any country’s administration would blame Taiwan if it were to fire upon a foreign navy that failed to leave its waters following a warning. It is also unlikely that a US decision to intervene to assist with Taiwan’s defense during a conflict would be contingent upon Taiwan not defending itself. If anything, the US would probably be more reluctant to intervene if Taiwan did not fire upon a foreign aggressor challenging its sovereignty and ignoring warning calls.
A US president’s decision on whether to help defend Taiwan would partially depend on Taipei’s ability and willingness to defend itself, retired US admiral and former US Pacific Fleet commander Dennis Blair said on Wednesday last week.
Last week’s tabletop exercises concluded that Taiwan might need to resist an invasion attempt for a few months to give allies time to assist. Part of Taiwan’s ability to do so would hinge upon a timely response to the initial phase of the attempt. If China were to be able to land a contingent of troops on Taiwan proper before Taiwanese forces even fired a shot, that would allow China to carry out sabotage missions.
Commenting on the tabletop exercise, a source on Sunday said that during the simulation, the Taiwanese team put forces in a state of heightened readiness and surveillance after Chinese vessels entered Taiwan’s territorial waters. Presumably, in a real-life scenario, Taiwanese forces would already be on heightened alert whenever Chinese vessels cross the median line of the Taiwan Strait. They should be prepared to open fire before the Chinese vessels even reached 12 nautical miles (22.2km) from Taiwan’s shore, if the vessels’ crews failed to explain the encroachment and stayed their course toward shore.
In April there was a public outcry online after a Chinese cruise ship, the Gulangyu (鼓浪嶼號), sailed within 2 nautical miles of Pingtung County’s Hengchun Peninsula. Following the incident, one analyst said that China could transport hundreds of troops to Taiwan undetected using such a vessel.
Taiwan should invest heavily in its coast guard, including through the purchase of sea and underwater drones, so that it can effectively monitor its extensive coastlines. It should also establish a clear protocol for engaging Chinese vessels that intrude into its territorial waters, and have the resolve to fire upon intruders in a timely manner if necessary.
US President Donald Trump last week told reporters that he had signed about 12 letters to US trading partners, which were set to be sent out yesterday, levying unilateral tariff rates of up to 70 percent from Aug. 1. However, Trump did not say which countries the letters would be sent to, nor did he discuss the specific tariff rates, reports said. The news of the tariff letters came as Washington and Hanoi reached a trade deal earlier last week to cut tariffs on Vietnamese exports to the US to 20 percent from 46 percent, making it the first Asian country
On Monday, Minister of Foreign Affairs Lin Chia-lung (林佳龍) delivered a welcome speech at the ILA-ASIL Asia-Pacific Research Forum, addressing more than 50 international law experts from more than 20 countries. With an aim to refute the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) claim to be the successor to the 1945 Chinese government and its assertion that China acquired sovereignty over Taiwan, Lin articulated three key legal positions in his speech: First, the Cairo Declaration and Potsdam Declaration were not legally binding instruments and thus had no legal effect for territorial disposition. All determinations must be based on the San Francisco Peace
As things heated up in the Middle East in early June, some in the Pentagon resisted American involvement in the Israel-Iran war because it would divert American attention and resources from the real challenge: China. This was exactly wrong. Rather, bombing Iran was the best thing that could have happened for America’s Asia policy. When it came to dealing with the Iranian nuclear program, “all options are on the table” had become an American mantra over the past two decades. But the more often US administration officials insisted that military force was in the cards, the less anyone believed it. After
During an impromptu Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) rally on Tuesday last week to protest what the party called the unfairness of the judicial system, a young TPP supporter said that if Taiwan goes to war, he would “surrender to the [Chinese] People’s Liberation Army [PLA] with unyielding determination.” The rally was held after former Taipei deputy mayor Pong Cheng-sheng’s (彭振聲) wife took her life prior to Pong’s appearance in court to testify in the Core Pacific corruption case involving former Taipei mayor and TPP chairman Ko Wen-je (柯文哲). The TPP supporter said President William Lai (賴清德) was leading them to die on
RSS