The US and its allies should treat the Taiwan Strait as part of the Pacific theater of operations to help counter threats from China, a military affairs researcher said on Sunday last week. Institute for National Defense and Security Research military expert Shen Ming-shih (沈明室) said he made the assessment in response to Japanese researchers’ comments following recent Chinese military drills.
Japan Institute for National Fundamentals researcher Maki Nakagawa said that the drills differed from earlier ones in that they involved Chinese fishers as a maritime militia. The exercises simulated a blockade of critical marine corridors and attacks on Taiwan’s critical infrastructure.
There is also the possibility China could take control of the Diaoyutai Islands (釣魚台) with drones and militia in the event of a Taiwan-China conflict, Nakagawa said, although Shen told the Liberty Times (the Taipei Times’ sister paper) that it would be unlikely to attempt such a move in the short term, as it would go against Beijing’s hopes to sow division between Japan and the US.
However, “Japan would be dealt a major blow if the islands were occupied by China,” he said.
Officials in Japan and the US are well aware that the annexation of Taiwan would be detrimental to their own national interests, and suggestions that Japanese islands might also become targets of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) have been made before.
China has been waging a disinformation campaign targeting Okinawa for the past several years. In March, The Diplomat reported that China might even target the prefecture for annexation by citing false claims that it was once Chinese territory.
Even if China’s ambitions went no further than the Diaoyutais, its occupation of the islands would project its naval power significantly closer to Okinawa and boost its capability to impose a blockade in the Bashi Channel or the Miyako Strait. Moreover, US forces in Okinawa would face a significantly greater threat.
Following Shen’s suggestion, the US and Japan could bolster coordination with Taiwanese forces to protect their own regional interests. Given shared claims over the Diaoyutais, Taiwan and Japan should put aside their differences and cooperate on the defense of the archipelago through joint patrols and coast guard deployments. The two sides could build shared facilities on the archipelago’s main island, from which they could jointly monitor Chinese drills in the vicinity.
A key focus of joint efforts between the three countries should be the deterrence of Chinese blockades of the Bashi Channel, the Miyako Strait, and the waters between Japan’s Yonaguni Island and Taiwan. Ensuring that the passageways remain unobstructed, and that submarine communication cables that traverse them remain secure and undamaged, is crucial to the integrity of the first island chain.
Japan’s Yomiuri Shimbun on Jan. 30 last year reported that China constantly has four warships deployed around Taiwan, which would likely play a role in access denial efforts in the event of a conflict.
Over the past year, China has allegedly used cargo vessels to damage submarine cables connecting Taiwan. On April 21, Chinese-language media reported that a Chinese cruise ship had sailed within 2 nautical miles (3.7km) of Pingtung County’s Hengchun Peninsula (恆春半島).
To protect against all such threats, Taiwan must closely monitor Chinese-operated vessels — commercial, civilian and military — that come close to its shores. Taipei could enlist the help of Japan and the US in the task.
Taiwan, the US and Japan must send China a clear message that harassment will not be tolerated.
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