It makes sense to think that US President Donald Trump’s trade war is increasing the risk of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan because it adds pressure on Beijing. However, Taiwan is not more vulnerable because of the tariffs. It is already under siege from China on multiple fronts.
Taipei has long been a geopolitical flashpoint. It now risks losing its hard-won autonomy if it does not confront these threats with greater urgency. That means strengthening military capabilities, passing a long overdue defense budget and preparing citizens for a possibly prolonged period of Chinese aggression.
Taiwan has already invested in missile defense systems and asymmetric weaponry, and extended the conscription service. However, progress on these deterrence measures has been uneven.
Some analysts have speculated whether Trump’s tariffs would accelerate China’s timeline for unification because Washington is distracted. Beijing has been ramping up military activities. It has sent a surging number of warplanes and coast guard vessels around Taiwan. Strategists have referred to this campaign as an “anaconda strategy,” a way to strangle Taiwan militarily, economically, diplomatically and psychologically, eventually forcing unification without ever having to formally declare war.
Beijing is clearly preparing for confrontation. The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is now the world’s largest maritime fighting force and continues to modernize rapidly. Recent video footage of new barges suggests it might have developed the capacity to land tens of thousands of troops and heavy equipment on Taiwan’s shores.
ENEMY WITHIN
Capability does not equal intent, but the images are a reminder of Beijing’s ambitions. Still, most military experts agree the most likely scenario would be a quarantine or a blockade, not a full-scale amphibious assault, which is believed to be beyond the PLA’s reach for now. Taiwanese intelligence says 2027 could be a potential target date for an attack.
As destructive as this defense buildup is, China is also weakening Taiwan from within. In the past year, prosecutions for espionage, particularly among military personnel, have soared in Taiwan.
Moreover, Beijing is using artificial intelligence-created disinformation campaigns to divide Taiwanese society, as well as targeting undersea communications cables, cutting off digital infrastructure to isolate the nation. These operations fit with the idea of “winning without fighting,” as outlined by the ancient philosopher of war Sun Zi (孫子), and favored by Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平).
China is likely to exploit Trump’s unpredictability to its advantage, said Xin Qiang (信強), an academic at Fudan University, on a recent Asia Society podcast before tariffs went into effect.
China sees Trump as transactional, which makes him dangerous, but also possibly useful, he added.
Taiwan’s own politics might also be giving China the upper hand. The ruling Democratic Progressive Party is gridlocked with the opposition Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) in the Legislative Yuan, delaying critical defense legislation. The uncertain environment and the US’ lack of security guarantees could play directly into Xi’s hands, convincing Taiwanese they might be safer in Beijing’s embrace rather than Washington’s.
TIME FOR NEGOTIATIONS
The 90-day reprieve from the tariffs on the US’ trading partners is a chance for negotiation. President William Lai (賴清德) is hoping the deal he is offering Trump would be enough to not just secure trade relief, but guarantee security ties, too.
Relying on that alone is dangerous. It is time for Lai to use his political skills to get opposition parties to come to an agreement, and not allow infighting to derail security planning. In the absence of a consistent US-led effort to deter China, Taipei needs to prioritize self-reliance and work to pass the defense budget.
Lessons from countries such as Finland and Sweden, which spent decades preparing for the threat of Russian aggression, are instructive. Taiwan is already implementing a whole-of-society resilience approach, including citizen training and civil defense measures. This would help in preparations for a potential attack. In the past, these efforts were downplayed out of fear of spooking citizens. Acknowledging the urgency now is progress and should continue.
Taipei should also counter Beijing’s artificial intelligence disinformation campaigns in a coordinated manner and educate the population. Some of this is already happening, but boosting media literacy campaigns and public awareness programs could help bring home the scale of the threat.
Trump’s transactional diplomacy threatens to isolate Taiwan just when solidarity around its future is urgently needed. Beijing will exploit any cracks. Depending simply on the whims of the administration in the White House for protection means gambling with its own future. Taiwan might be under siege, but it is not without options to cement its own security.
Karishma Vaswani is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Asia politics with a special focus on China. Previously, she was the BBC’s lead Asia presenter, and worked for the BBC across Asia and South Asia for two decades. This column reflects the personal views of the author and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
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