Less than three weeks into his tenure, US President Donald Trump is governing at breakneck speed, making significant changes to US foreign policy, with governments around the world, both US adversaries and allies, scrambling to keep up.
Trump is ushering in a new modus operandi of the international order, one which easily discards norms and customs in the pursuit of national interest. This new approach brings opportunities and challenges for the US’ allies, including Taiwan. To advance its security and prosperity, Taiwan should be dexterous to ensure its interests align with the interests of Trump, the US and the wider democratic world.
The key to understanding Trump, New York Times columnist Ezra Klein wrote in October last year, is that he is disinhibited — he feels unconstrained by institutions, norms or customs.
This is “the engine” of his success and the source of his political strength, Klein wrote.
Trump can say and do what others cannot. This can be an asset for the US and its allies, but it can also bring challenges, not least for Taiwan.
Unconstrained by past practices, Trump could deepen Taiwan-US relations. For example, by selling weapons that the US has historically been hesitant to deliver. This was evidenced during his first term when he agreed to major military sales, including 108 M1A2 tanks, which were delivered at the end of last year, and 66 new F-16V jets.
These efforts set the tone of deepening US-Taiwan military cooperation and have greatly helped to bolster the nation’s long-term defense capabilities.
Trump could also help expand Taiwan’s meaningful participation in international organizations, which is important for the nation to engage in global diplomacy and foster relationships with other nations and international entities. Membership in economic organizations could give Taiwan greater access to markets, trade agreements and other economic opportunities, which would help bolster the nation’s resilience and prosperity, while also boosting US composite weight in international forums.
This would be a win-win for the US and Taiwan.
However, Trump’s willingness to do away with conventions could also pose challenges for Taiwan. His transactional approach to foreign policy means that values which have historically played a prominent role in the nation’s relations with the US might take more of a back seat. Taiwan must be attuned to this shift and work to show the value the nation brings to the alliance in terms of material power.
For example, the US has long called for Taiwan to prioritize military power and to boost its defense spending as a percentage of GDP. While Taiwan’s defense budget has increased 80.47 percent over the past eight years, it would still only account for about 2.45 percent of GDP this year.
Meanwhile, other small democracies facing even fewer existential threats are aggressively raising their budgets, such as Poland, whose defense spending is forecast to rise to 4.7 percent of GDP this year.
Therefore, the Trump administration might not be as patient as previous US administrations in terms of Taiwan’s defense spending.
In a new era of geopolitical flux, where a more transactional approach to politics might become the norm, the nation needs to come together and get on the same page on foreign relations and leave petty political squabbles aside.
Trump brings opportunities and challenges for Taiwan, and the nation should ensure it engages in deft diplomacy to align its national interests with the US and other democratic allies to safeguard collective security and prosperity, and meet its commitments as a responsible stakeholder in a new international order.
In their recent op-ed “Trump Should Rein In Taiwan” in Foreign Policy magazine, Christopher Chivvis and Stephen Wertheim argued that the US should pressure President William Lai (賴清德) to “tone it down” to de-escalate tensions in the Taiwan Strait — as if Taiwan’s words are more of a threat to peace than Beijing’s actions. It is an old argument dressed up in new concern: that Washington must rein in Taipei to avoid war. However, this narrative gets it backward. Taiwan is not the problem; China is. Calls for a so-called “grand bargain” with Beijing — where the US pressures Taiwan into concessions
The term “assassin’s mace” originates from Chinese folklore, describing a concealed weapon used by a weaker hero to defeat a stronger adversary with an unexpected strike. In more general military parlance, the concept refers to an asymmetric capability that targets a critical vulnerability of an adversary. China has found its modern equivalent of the assassin’s mace with its high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) weapons, which are nuclear warheads detonated at a high altitude, emitting intense electromagnetic radiation capable of disabling and destroying electronics. An assassin’s mace weapon possesses two essential characteristics: strategic surprise and the ability to neutralize a core dependency.
Chinese President and Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Chairman Xi Jinping (習近平) said in a politburo speech late last month that his party must protect the “bottom line” to prevent systemic threats. The tone of his address was grave, revealing deep anxieties about China’s current state of affairs. Essentially, what he worries most about is systemic threats to China’s normal development as a country. The US-China trade war has turned white hot: China’s export orders have plummeted, Chinese firms and enterprises are shutting up shop, and local debt risks are mounting daily, causing China’s economy to flag externally and hemorrhage internally. China’s
During the “426 rally” organized by the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and the Taiwan People’s Party under the slogan “fight green communism, resist dictatorship,” leaders from the two opposition parties framed it as a battle against an allegedly authoritarian administration led by President William Lai (賴清德). While criticism of the government can be a healthy expression of a vibrant, pluralistic society, and protests are quite common in Taiwan, the discourse of the 426 rally nonetheless betrayed troubling signs of collective amnesia. Specifically, the KMT, which imposed 38 years of martial law in Taiwan from 1949 to 1987, has never fully faced its
RSS