US President Donald Trump on Monday gave his inauguration speech. Although mainly directed at US citizens, his words were subject to global scrutiny by leaders and others wanting to understand more about his intentions for his second term. The US has been Taiwan’s strongest ally since the end of World War II and Trump’s first term brought many welcome advances in Taiwan-US ties.
Still, many Taiwanese are concerned about what Trump’s second term will mean for the nation, especially after comments he made concerning Taiwan’s national defense and semiconductor industry.
During Monday’s address, Trump said that the US “will once again consider itself a growing nation, one that increases our wealth, expands our territory, builds our cities, raises our expectations, and carries our flag into new and beautiful horizons.”
The phrase “expands our territory” raises flags.
Trump confirmed within the speech that he is still considering acquiring Greenland and control over the Panama Canal, which will raise eyebrows given his previous refusal to rule out force or economic coercions to achieve those ends.
If the US expands its territory through military or economic coercion, it would be corrosive to the international order and respect for sovereign rights. Questions will be asked such as why Russian President Vladimir Putin or Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) could not use similar methods in their own expansionist ambitions.
Trump also said that he would measure his success “by the wars that we end ... and ... the wars we never get into. My proudest legacy will be that of a peacemaker and unifier.”
Even though Trump is deeply critical of his predecessor’s policies, hopefully he would maintain the latticework of US allies in Asia and the Indo-Pacific region, including countries such as Japan, Australia, South Korea, the Philippines and India, in alliances that former US president Joe Biden’s team spent four years weaving together. If Trump wants to be a peacemaker and a unifier in the region, that would be the most effective way to deter Xi from military adventurism in the Taiwan Strait or the South China Sea. Nobody wants war, but what would Trump be willing to concede to Xi over Taiwan to prevent it in the Taiwan Strait?
There are reasons for optimism in Trump’s Cabinet picks. Marco Rubio, a founding member of the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, who is deeply critical of the Chinese Communist Party (CPP) and who has talked of the importance of making the CCP conclude that intervening in Taiwan would be too costly, was confirmed by the US Senate to be Trump’s secretary of state. Trump has also named US Representative Mike Waltz, who has called China an “existential threat,” as his national security adviser. If they are an indicator of his foreign policy intentions, Taiwan has cause for confidence.
Trump did not mention tariffs, but he did talk of revitalizing and reinforcing the US’ industrial base, so more demands on moving chip production to the US can be expected, reducing reliance on Taiwan’s semiconductor sector.
Trump’s demands for continued US support for Taiwan — for it to commit more to its own defense and to increase its military budget — are neither unreasonable nor unrealizable. The government has sought to increase the military budget as a percentage of GDP, continues to seek US military equipment and training, and has an indigenous submarine program. It is the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and the Taiwan People’s Party that are stymieing attempts to bolster national defense capabilities by slashing the defense budget in the legislature.
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