On Thursday last week, the National Development Council released its latest population projection, which indicated that Taiwan’s population would continue declining. Next year, the ratio of people aged 65 and older would surpass the 20 percent threshold that constitutes a “super-aged society.” Moreover, 2028 would mark the end of Taiwan’s demographic dividend, that is, the economic growth potential resulting from having a larger proportion of working-age population than a non-working-age population. The issue of an aging population has been aggravated by a declining birthrate. By 2070, Taiwan’s population would shrink from the current 23.4 million to less than 15 million people.
The nation’s demographic structure is a cause for alarm. Issues like a declining birthrate, an aging population and the number of deaths exceeding the number of births are no longer simply headlines — they are happening before our eyes. The council’s projection is further evidence of this. Government efforts to declare the declining birthrate a threat to national security and adopt a number of measures to handle the issue have yet to successfully reverse this trend.
Taiwan’s population issue is serious. Not only does it grow more evident as time passes, but it is also severe from an international perspective. The CIA World Factbook estimates Taiwan’s total fertility rate (the average number of children a woman would have) for this year at 1.11, ranking 227th on its list. Not only is this lower than the global average of 2.24 children per woman, but it is also far below the population replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman. The birthrate is also low at 7.3 births per 1,000 population, ranking 220th on the CIA list. When few children are born, it is extremely difficult to increase the population. Taiwan’s estimated population growth of 0.03 percent for this year, while higher than that of Japan, is still far lower than the global average of 1.03 percent, ranking 191st globally — still in the bottom tier. Overall, the median age of Taiwan’s population of more than 23 million people is 44.6, nearly 15 years older than the global average of 30.
The council predicts that by 2027, the population of 18-year-olds entering college would drop below 200,000. By 2028, the working-age population — aged 15 to 64 — would account for less than two-thirds of the total. By 2049, the total population would drop below 20 million, and by 2050, the proportion of the elderly population would reach 38.4 percent.
Taiwan’s population crisis is severe from multiple angles. Traditionally, population is both an indication of the state and power of a country, as well as an important strategic resource. Population changes affect individuals, families, the social economy, the environment, culture, politics and much more. Simply put, a declining population increases the tax burden on individuals, shrinks the social safety net, deprives children of adequate peer interaction, leads to a shortage of young workers and drains society of its vitality.
Taiwan is already facing several problems: Schools at all levels are struggling to recruit students, traditional industries lack workers and it is difficult to recruit enough soldiers to meet quotas. Population issues are a long-term phenomenon. While not immediately visible in the short term, it has already become a threat to national security. We must face it earnestly and seek effective strategies.
It must be emphasized that, while the global population exceeds 8 billion and continues to increase, one-fourth of countries are seeing population declines. That is not to say that the larger the population, the better it is — the scale and structure of a population, viewed from different perspectives, require different solutions, but any changes would inevitably have interrelated effects. Generally speaking, declining fertility and birthrates have become increasingly evident alongside economic development. Industrialization and modernization have raised women’s status and provided them with more career opportunities, but also the challenge of finding a balance between family and career. Additionally, higher educational standards have delayed the age at which people have children, while urbanization has increased housing costs. Raising children is thus a great burden; young Taiwanese, in particular, suffer from low salaries. These factors, among others, have led to a declining fertility rate. In recent years, the fertility and birthrates in East Asian countries have ranked among the lowest in the world, likely due to these reasons.
Among countries facing declining birthrates, including Taiwan, governments have done more than just sit by and watch. However, past experience has demonstrated that government measures are much more effective at decreasing the population than they are at encouraging childbirth. While China has relaxed its strict, long-term one-child policy, public response has been lukewarm. China’s population growth rate still ranked 172nd, among the lowest in the world. Post-war Japan curbed population growth by encouraging contraception and decriminalizing abortion, but the government’s present efforts to encourage childbirth have proven ineffective. In the 1970s, South Korea legalized abortion to discourage people from having more than two children; today, the country is struggling with low marriage and birthrates.
Generally speaking, for governments looking to encourage childbirth, the most important measures would include expanding parental leave, providing childcare subsidies, encouraging men to be present during childbirth and take on more household duties, shortening work hours and increasing wages, and offering tax incentives to encourage young people to get married and have children. Additionally, they should be open to immigration and selectively introducing global talent, although these ideas often lead to significant political and social controversy.
Taiwan has had some success in these respects over the past few years. The government has established a special office to implement measures to encourage childbirth, extend parental leave, expand and enhance the childcare environment, strengthen childhood education and so on. It has also come up with a prominent slogan — that the nation should raise all children younger than six together — in addition to making significant financial investments. However, improving population issues is a responsibility the government cannot shirk; only by investing in the next generation will the country have a future. The government can encourage people to have more children, but raising children is ultimately up to the individual. The government cannot have children, nor can it overstep its authority when it comes to raising them. Similarly, elderly care is an important matter that everyone should plan for: We cannot rely entirely on the government. Creating a hopeful future for the younger generation would ensure that the elderly would be well taken care of.
Population issues were not created overnight, but took form slowly over time. Improving the current situation requires acute foresight. The issues before our eyes today are a result of past failures; the longer we delay, the more difficult it would be to solve this crisis, and the higher the costs imposed. Society as a whole must work together to confront these issues.
Translated by Kyra Gustavsen
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