Fri, Oct 11, 2024 page9

• Earth’s ‘vital signs’ show humanity’s future in balance, experts say

  Record emissions, temperatures and population mean more scientists are looking into the possibility of societal collapse, report says

  • By Damian Carrington / The Guardian
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  Many of Earth’s “vital signs” have hit record extremes, indicating that “the future of humanity hangs in the balance,” a group of the world’s most senior climate experts have said.

  More and more scientists are looking into the possibility of societal collapse, said the report, which assessed 35 vital signs last year and found that 25 were worse than ever recorded, including carbon dioxide levels and human population. This indicates a “critical and unpredictable new phase of the climate crisis,” it said.

  The temperature of Earth’s surface and oceans hit an all-time high, driven by a record burning of fossil fuels, the report found. The human population is increasing at a rate of approximately 200,000 people a day, and the number of cattle and sheep by 170,000 a day, all adding to record greenhouse gas emissions.

  

  Illustration: Mountain People

  The scientists identified 28 feedback loops, including increasing emissions from melting permafrost, which could help trigger multiple tipping points, such as the collapse of the massive Greenland icecap.

  Global heating is driving increasingly deadly extreme weather across the world, they said, including hurricanes in the US and 50°C heat waves in India, with billions of people now exposed to extreme heat.

  The scientists said their goal was “to provide clear, evidence-based insights that inspire informed and bold responses from citizens to researchers and world leaders — we just want to act truthfully and tell it like it is.”

  Decisive, fast action was imperative to limit human suffering, they said, including reducing fossil fuel burning and methane emissions, cutting overconsumption and waste by the rich, and encouraging a switch to plant-based foods.

  “We’re already in the midst of abrupt climate upheaval, which jeopardizes life on Earth like nothing humans have ever seen,” said William Ripple, a professor at Oregon State University (OSU), who coled the group.

  “Ecological overshoot — taking more than the Earth can safely give — has pushed the planet into climatic conditions more threatening than anything witnessed even by our prehistoric relatives,” Ripple said.

  “Climate change has already displaced millions of people, with the potential to displace hundreds of millions or even billions. That would likely lead to greater geopolitical instability, possibly even partial societal collapse,” he said.

  The assessment, published in the journal Bioscience, said the concentration of carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere is at record levels.

  Methane is a potent greenhouse gas, 80 times more powerful than carbon dioxide over 20 years, and is emitted by fossil fuel operations, waste dumps, cattle and rice fields.

  “The growth rate of methane emissions has been accelerating, which is extremely troubling,” said Christopher Wolf, formerly of OSU, who coled the team.

  While wind and solar energy grew by 15 percent last year, the researchers said, coal, oil and gas still dominated. They said there was “stiff resistance from those benefiting financially from the current fossil-fuel based system.”

  The report includes the results of a Guardian survey of hundreds of senior climate experts in May, which found that only 6 percent believed that the internationally agreed limit of 1.5°C of warming would be adhered to.

  “The fact is that avoiding every tenth of a degree of warming is critically important,” the researchers said. “Each tenth places an extra 100 million people into unprecedented hot average temperatures.”

  The researchers said global heating was part of a wider crisis that included pollution, the destruction of nature and rising economic inequality.

  “Climate change is a glaring symptom of a deeper systemic issue: Ecological overshoot, [which] is an inherently unstable state that cannot persist indefinitely. As the risk of Earth’s climate system switching to a catastrophic state rises, more and more scientists have begun to research the possibility of societal collapse. Even in the absence of global collapse, climate change could cause many millions of additional deaths by 2050. We need bold, transformative change,” they said.

  Among the policies the scientists recommend for rapid adoption are gradually reducing the human population through empowering education and rights for girls and women; protecting, restoring or rewilding ecosystems; and integrating climate change education into global curriculums to boost awareness and action.

  “Only through decisive action can we safeguard the natural world, avert profound human suffering and ensure that future generations inherit the livable world they deserve. The future of humanity hangs in the balance,” the assessment concluded.

  The world’s nations are to meet at the UN’s COP29 climate summit in Azerbaijan next month.

  “It’s imperative that huge progress is made,” Ripple said.
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