The contest for leadership of Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) officially launched on Thursday. An unprecedented nine candidates are vying for the top position, but only a few have strong prospects. The top three candidates are Shinjiro Koizumi, Shigeru Ishiba and Sanae Takaichi, recent opinion polls showed.
Koizumi, known for his unconventional approach, stands out as a fresh and sincere face in Japan’s factional politics. A media favorite, he has been regarded as a rising star from an early age and nicknamed the “Japanese Macron.” Not only does he possess youth and good looks, but also eloquence.
Koizumi’s only Cabinet experience was two years as the environment minister from 2019 to 2021. During a news conference announcing his candidacy, some expressed doubts about his lack of experience and ability to handle major responsibilities. Koizumi responded calmly, acknowledging his shortcomings, while adding that he would build the best possible party to address those gaps and do everything he could to assure the public.
His humble and receptive attitude was well-received.
Ishiba, on the other hand, has extensive experience in major political and governmental roles. He has contested the leadership role four times, all resulting in defeat. His past rivals have included former prime ministers Taro Aso, Shinzo Abe — on two occasions — and Yoshihide Suga.
Nearly half of the National Diet have opposed him in the past, so it is almost certain that he would not win should he reach the final stage of the election.
Takaichi also has extensive political and administrative experience. She has been a staunch advocate of Taiwan from the beginning of her career. A strong and unyielding figure, she does not shy away from her right-wing reputation.
The focal point of the election would be whether the principle that a Taiwan contingency is an issue for Japan could be formally implemented as policy. That would depend on whether the candidates hesitate to directly address issues with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) for fear of causing greater harm.
Among the candidates, only Takaichi, Koizumi and former economic security minister Takayuki Kobayashi have shown a willingness to face the CCP head-on by visiting the Yasukuni Shrine — a World War II memorial site controversial for its inclusion of Japanese war criminals that China has previously objected to — prior to Aug. 15.
Koizumi even went so far as to publicly share photographs of his visit, signaling his intention to cooperate with conservatives.
Due to fragmentation among conservatives following Abe’s assassination, a strong supporter of Takaichi, the 11 remaining members of the “Abe faction” and three members of the “Aso faction” have endorsed Kobayashi’s candidacy. With the conservative base loosening, Takaichi would likely struggle to advance past the first round of the election.
The decisive battle would likely be between Koizumi and Ishiba. Suga has expressed support for Koizumi. With the added endorsements of his father, former prime minister Junichiro Koizumi, along with former prime ministers Yoshiro Mori and Ishiba’s rival Aso, Shinjiro Koizumi enjoys an exceptional advantage with a motto touting unity of diverse perspectives.
By contrast, Ishiba — whose campaign slogan is that vultures do not flock together — appears isolated and might struggle to pose a significant challenge.
If Shinjiro Koizumi unites the different factions of the LDP and makes his way to the top, it could mark a generational shift in the party, potentially leading to the end of factional politics and a rebirth of the LDP.
Wang Hui-sheng is chief director of the Kisei Ladies’ and Children’s Hospital in Japan and a founding member of the East Asian Research Institute.
Translated by Kyra Gustavsen
On May 7, 1971, Henry Kissinger planned his first, ultra-secret mission to China and pondered whether it would be better to meet his Chinese interlocutors “in Pakistan where the Pakistanis would tape the meeting — or in China where the Chinese would do the taping.” After a flicker of thought, he decided to have the Chinese do all the tape recording, translating and transcribing. Fortuitously, historians have several thousand pages of verbatim texts of Dr. Kissinger’s negotiations with his Chinese counterparts. Paradoxically, behind the scenes, Chinese stenographers prepared verbatim English language typescripts faster than they could translate and type them
More than 30 years ago when I immigrated to the US, applied for citizenship and took the 100-question civics test, the one part of the naturalization process that left the deepest impression on me was one question on the N-400 form, which asked: “Have you ever been a member of, involved in or in any way associated with any communist or totalitarian party anywhere in the world?” Answering “yes” could lead to the rejection of your application. Some people might try their luck and lie, but if exposed, the consequences could be much worse — a person could be fined,
On May 13, the Legislative Yuan passed an amendment to Article 6 of the Nuclear Reactor Facilities Regulation Act (核子反應器設施管制法) that would extend the life of nuclear reactors from 40 to 60 years, thereby providing a legal basis for the extension or reactivation of nuclear power plants. On May 20, Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) legislators used their numerical advantage to pass the TPP caucus’ proposal for a public referendum that would determine whether the Ma-anshan Nuclear Power Plant should resume operations, provided it is deemed safe by the authorities. The Central Election Commission (CEC) has
When China passed its “Anti-Secession” Law in 2005, much of the democratic world saw it as yet another sign of Beijing’s authoritarianism, its contempt for international law and its aggressive posture toward Taiwan. Rightly so — on the surface. However, this move, often dismissed as a uniquely Chinese form of legal intimidation, echoes a legal and historical precedent rooted not in authoritarian tradition, but in US constitutional history. The Chinese “Anti-Secession” Law, a domestic statute threatening the use of force should Taiwan formally declare independence, is widely interpreted as an emblem of the Chinese Communist Party’s disregard for international norms. Critics
RSS