Fri, Feb 23, 2024 page8

• Credible deterrence against China

  • By Huynh Tam Sang and Chen Kuan-ting 陳冠廷
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  Amid the intensifying Sino-US strategic rivalry, Beijing has become more vocal about its coercive “wolf warrior” diplomacy.

  Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) condemned the US-led “containment, encirclement and suppression of China” at last year’s annual National People’s Congress in Beijing.

  Xi went on to say that China must “have the courage to fight” in the face of complicated changes at home and abroad.

  Taiwan is still a very sensitive subject for US-China relations. Chinese Central Foreign Affairs Commission Director Wang Yi (王毅) emphasized that Taiwan was “China’s internal affair” and reiterated that “Taiwan is part of China” during his talk last month with US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan.

  President-elect William Lai (賴清德) of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has reaffirmed that his administration would maintain the “status quo” in the Taiwan Strait, which is neither unification nor independence.

  The Chinese People’s Liberation Army has continued to pressure Taiwan by sending warplanes and warships into the skies and waters near Taiwan, with Taiwan typically only having minutes to react. Chinese surveillance balloons have also been detected around Taiwan’s airspace, expressing Beijing’s disapproval over the results of Taiwan’s presidential election.

  Lai underlined his commitment to navigating cross-strait relations peacefully. However, this has failed to deter Beijing’s aggression against the self-governed nation.

  Just as Chinese leaders do not endorse Lai’s views on China-Taiwan relations, credible assurance does not accomplish much in building trust and reducing tensions in the Taiwan Strait.

  Undoubtedly, China’s skepticism toward the DPP-led government in Taiwan remains unchanged.

  In general, the People’s Republic of China does not use a measured approach in navigating differences and competition.

  Beijing under Xi’s leadership seeks to promote a foreign policy that would further establish itself as a dominant player in the Indo-Pacific region and has a desire to redress the current world order.

  This can be seen in its “friendship” with Russia, despite worries from democracies, and its military coercion in the South China Sea. At the end of the day, China’s ultimate objective is to become a dominant world power, where other countries are obligated to acknowledge and bow to its authority.

  Is there a strategy in place to prevent China from taking a reckless approach toward Taiwan? We might be running short on them.

  Credible deterrence seems to be the best course of action. Security in the Taiwan Strait is in the best interest of the US and the rest of the globe, and a bellicose China poses a risk of instability and economic depression that the world could hardly bear.

  In line with the Taiwan Relations Act, US President Joe Biden’s administration has pledged to bolster Taiwan’s self-defense capabilities. It also plans to deploy ground-based, intermediate-range missiles in the Indo-Pacific in this year, but the details, such as when and where, are still up in the air.

  To deter China’s military buildup — or even worse, a crisis in the Taiwan Strait — land forces are vital, but so are air, sea, space and cyber domains.

  The US faces two issues: convincing its allies to host such missiles and making sure its new capabilities can effectively block China’s military moves.

  Regional powers also need to reinforce the credibility of deterrence, as assurance does little to alleviate cross-strait tensions. The shared interests of the US and its Indo-Pacific allies outweigh their differences, so it is time for them to work together to support Taiwan.

  In response to China’s aggressive actions, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr has pursed stronger security ties with the US and Japan, and has started negotiations for trilateral security cooperation. The US should seize this chance to strengthen military ties with the Philippines and prevent China from acquiring the country’s northern islands, as Beijing might use them as leverage to launch a military offensive against Taiwan.

  Dialogues among the US and regional countries have been in place, which is a good starting point, but deterrence should also be embedded in policies at the national level.

  However, the Biden administration has been too soft on China. At a summit in San Francisco last year, Xi told Biden that Beijing would “reunify” Taiwan with mainland China. Xi’s saber rattling is nothing new, but his resolve is undeniable.

  In contrast, the White House appears to be optimistic, and Biden “called for restraint” in China’s military actions “in and around the Taiwan Strait.”

  Rhetoric deterrence should be an integral part of Washington’s strategy.

  The US is opposed to any unilateral attempts to change the “status quo,” so its leaders should make it clear that they are against the use of force to annex Taiwan.

  If Beijing were to violently alter the “status quo” in the Taiwan Strait, Washington and its allies would respond with a military counterattack.

  From a moral standpoint, those who remain optimistic about a peaceful resolution to cross-strait ties are right.

  However, current great-power politics and China’s intimidation — which includes persistent economic pressure, military coercion and disinformation campaigns targeting Taiwan — could let them down.

  Armed coexistence has replaced peaceful coexistence as the dominant worldview, former Indian foreign secretary and ambassador to China Vijay Gokhale said.

  The US, Taiwan and their like-minded partners must face this truth together.

  Regional powers are reluctant to capitulate in the face of China’s growing assertiveness, which, if not reined in, could grow far too great to dissuade. Chinese authorities will not hesitate to wield their power unless great powers are willing to work together to counter it. The history of China’s international relations shows that it would prudently weigh the costs and benefits of major decisions like declaring war or forming allies.

  Until Taiwan and China reach a modus vivendi, or “way of life,” that could satisfy the interests of both sides, the tense, cross-strait standoff would continue.

  The US and regional allies recognize China’s ambition for regional hegemony, but their efforts fall short when it comes to deterring the Asian dragon. They should consider a novel deterrence strategy that includes bolstering Taiwan’s defense capabilities, reinforcing US military presence in the region, embracing stern diplomatic remarks and strengthening allied cooperation.

  Huynh Tam Sang is a lecturer at Ho Chi Minh City University of Social Sciences and Humanities, a member of the Young Leaders Program of the Pacific Forum and research fellow at the Taiwan NextGen Foundation. He is a visiting scholar at National Taiwan University as part of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Taiwan Fellowship program. Chen Kuan-ting is CEO of the Taiwan NextGen Foundation.
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