The geopolitical landscape of the Asia-Pacific region has been shaped by the ongoing tensions in the Taiwan Strait. As China seeks to assert its dominance over Taiwan, India finds itself at a critical juncture, balancing its diplomatic relations with both nations. Understanding India’s perspective on these tensions is crucial in comprehending the complex dynamics of the India-Taiwan-China relationship.
In the aftermath of the 1962 war with China, India sought to balance Beijing’s influence by cultivating ties with the Soviet Union. The Sino-Soviet tensions of the Cold War era provided India with leverage to restrain China’s expansionist ambitions. However, India faced a delicate dilemma when clashes between the Soviet Union and China erupted in 1969. Striving to maintain a delicate balance, India wished for the crisis to continue without escalating into a hot war. This approach allowed India to remain salient in Moscow’s strategy while creating anxiety in Beijing, eventually leading to a rapprochement with India.
The Taiwan Strait holds immense significance as a potential flashpoint between the US and China in the Indo-Pacific region. Not only is it a geopolitical hotspot, but it also serves as a political and military pivot in the region. India’s perspective on the tensions in the Taiwan Strait must take into account the far-reaching consequences of a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
A successful Chinese invasion of Taiwan would have profound political implications, significantly altering the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific region. It would signify the extinguishment of US hegemony, prompting a retraction of Washington’s commitments and leaving its allies in Southeast Asia questioning the credibility of US security assurances. Countries in the region, including US allies, could choose to ally with China rather than confront it, leading to a regional realignment of power. Countries such as Japan and Australia would face a critical political crisis, compelled to either accommodate China or develop robust military deterrents, potentially including nuclear weapons. Moreover, a victorious Beijing would have little incentive to accommodate India, thereby increasing pressure on India’s borders.
The military consequences of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan are equally significant. Currently, Taiwan serves as a distraction for China, preventing the concentration of its military power on India’s borders. Additionally, the presence of US and allied forces in Taiwan provides a strategic advantage in threatening China with punitive military strikes. However, if China were to conquer Taiwan, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) assets dedicated to the Taiwan theater would be freed up, enabling their deployment along China’s unsettled border in the Himalayas. This would remove the distraction and provide India with a highly motivated and battle-tested PLA force to contend with. Furthermore, the PLA Navy’s freedom from the constraints imposed by Taiwan’s presence would allow it to expand its dominance in the South China Sea and allocate more resources to the Indian Ocean.
While India’s wish for peace and stability aligns with the current “status quo,” the volatile nature of international politics demands a more proactive approach. India must carefully consider the political and military consequences of a potential Chinese conflict with Taiwan and formulate a policy that supports Taiwan’s freedom while safeguarding its interests.
The prevailing discussions on India’s perspective often focus on the economic and diplomatic hardships it could face in the event of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait. Disruptions in trade routes through the South China Sea, particularly for India’s trade with East Asia and Southeast Asian countries, would have severe implications. India’s trade with Taiwan, China and other regional nations would also be significantly affected. However, these considerations only scratch the surface of the larger strategic challenges that India must confront.
India’s participation in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) provides a platform for addressing the tensions in the Taiwan Strait and the Indo-Pacific at large and shaping regional power dynamics. As a member of the Quad, India is expected to contribute to efforts aimed at maintaining Taiwan’s freedom. India must engage with its Quad partners to discuss its constraints and their expectations, formulating a policy based on a reciprocal framework of support.
India’s perspective on the Taiwan Strait tensions cannot overlook the potential repercussions for its border security, particularly in the Himalayan region. A successful Chinese invasion of Taiwan would embolden China’s military and leadership, potentially intensifying pressure on India’s borders. The Himalayas would become a key geography for China to restore its reputation in the face of a military defeat over Taiwan. India must factor in these security considerations when formulating its policy on the Taiwan Strait tensions.
India’s delicate foreign policy balancing act, its economic and diplomatic considerations, and its security concerns all contribute to its stance on the Taiwan Strait tensions. As India navigates the complex dynamics of the India-Taiwan-China relationship, it must proactively reassess its strategic approach, engaging with its Quad partners and formulating a policy that safeguards its interests while supporting Taiwan’s freedom. By doing so, India can play a pivotal role in shaping regional power dynamics and maintaining stability in the Indo-Pacific region.
Karamala Areesh Kumar is head of the department of international relations, peace and public policy at St Joseph’s University in Bengaluru, India. S. Lalitha is a researcher in the department of international relations at Central University of Kerala, India.
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