Fri, Jul 28, 2023 page8

• Of gray rhinos and black swans

  • By Roger Wu 吳哲文
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  Next month, Vice President William Lai (賴清德) is scheduled to visit Paraguay to attend the inauguration of its president-elect Santiago Pena. On his way, he is expected to make a stopover in the US. Given that next year’s presidential election is less than half a year away, the Chinese government — which has been trying to block Taiwan’s anti-China party from the international community, while supporting the pro-China party in next year’s election — has taken advantage of Lai’s visit and has been holding back Taiwan.

  As a result, Chinese Ambassador to the US Xie Feng (謝鋒) said: “Now the priority for us is to stop William Lai Ching-te from visiting the US, which is like a gray rhino charging at us.”

  When Beijing accuses leaders of other nations of being gray rhinos, has it ever considered that it is China that is the major factor of uncertainty that might cause disturbances in the international community?

  Since Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) came to power, Beijing has been trying to realize its expansionist plan, and compete with the US for the world’s superpower status. In this process, Beijing has completely abandoned Deng Xiaoping’s (鄧小平) “hide and bide” strategy, established along with reform and opening-up policies.

  China has increased the frequency and intensity of its intrusions into the waters and airspaces of Taiwan, Japan and South Korea with its military aircraft and ships. Beijing constantly finds excuses to conduct military drills and disturb the stability of the region.

  At the same time, China has continued to enlarge the number and scale of its artificial islands in the South China Sea. Their purpose is to enhance its military deployments there. From time to time, the Chinese government shows its military might, demonstrating how its planes and warships could break through the first island chain and get close to the US bases on Guam and nearby islands.

  In terms of managing its diplomatic relations, Beijing has continued to infiltrate international organizations, trying to take the lead in personnel selection and agenda setting.

  It has also let Chinese diplomats loose on negotiating and interacting with other national leaders, and those “wolf warriors,” with all kinds of shocking remarks, have demonstrated Beijing’s stark naked imperialistic will. China, when seen through such speech and behavior, is the gray rhino in the world. If China’s moves would not lead the international community to consider it as one, who would it consider the gray rhino to be?

  China is not merely a gray rhino. In recent years, China’s economic growth has become much slower. Its real-estate market system has been excessively and, thus, unhealthily expanded, and the financial bubble of local land transactions is about to burst. The manufacturing industry and foreign companies in the global supply chain have been gradually moving out of China. This is only the beginning, and it would soon affect China’s employment, wages, domestic market and social security, as well as every aspect of what allows it to remain stable. It is not an exaggeration to say that a perfect storm has been brewing within every corner of China’s society.

  China’s economic recession is a black swan that would influence the world, and we do not know when the black swan would come crashing to the ground. When it does, the moment would affect the economic and political situation worldwide. This has become the most crucial uncertainty to the international community for the next few years.

  It is precisely because China has been so riddled with problems that the Chinese government has put a lot of effort into bringing Taiwan’s pro-China presidential candidates to power in next year’s election. That way, China would be able to exploit Taiwan’s resources and prolong the life of its communist-party-led state system.

  When Beijing’s numerous mouthpieces criticized Lai’s stopover in the US, they never criticized the other two presidential candidates, Taiwan People’s Party Chairman Ko Wen-je (柯文哲) and the Chinese Nationalist Party’s (KMT) Hou You-yi (侯友宜). Quite the opposite, Ko and Hou have been celebrated by those Chinese mouthpieces on many occasions. It is obvious which candidates Chinese officials approve of, and the intention of the Chinese government could not be clearer. Witnessing this, Taiwanese should not make themselves slaves of China. They should not get involved in China’s disputes with others. I believe that Taiwanese would think rationally when holding their votes in hand, and they would make the right judgement.

  Roger Wu works in the service industry and is a part-time freelance writer.

  Translated by Emma Liu
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