The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has always regarded unification with Taiwan as a stepping stone toward breaking through the first island chain to gain easy access to the western Pacific. This plan has suffered a setback with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. From last month’s G7 agenda to the international community’s comments of support for Taiwan, it is obvious that the US still sees the first island chain as crucial, and Taiwan as a core component in protecting it.
In light of the strategic competition between the US and China, Taiwan’s importance to Washington’s Indo-Pacific strategy ranks first in Asia in terms of jurisdiction and geopolitics, even though the US does not officially recognize Taiwan as a country. Therefore, the CCP’s attempt to annex Taiwan by force would be difficult to realize.
As breaking through the first island chain would be a tricky proposition, the CCP might take an alternative route by starting from Japan to force the US to retreat, as Beijing has geographical advantages in northeast Asia that would allow it to easily receive support from Russia and North Korea. If the CCP wants to confront or deter the US, it is much easier to realize it in the Sea of Japan than in the Taiwan Strait.
Beijing has recently expanded the scope of its cross-border trade in northeast China, adding Russia’s Port of Vladivostok as a transit point for domestic goods. It also took that opportunity to extend the range of the CCP’s warships to the port. This would allow China’s armed forces to aid Russia in its development of Sakhalin Island and the four southernmost Kuril Islands, adding pressure on Japan’s claims over the area.
Since Russia’s Pacific Fleet has not been the focus of Moscow’s military expansion, its ships have not been modernized or upgraded in many years. It intends to use the CCP’s emerging shipbuilding technology and capacity to help bolster the fleet. More naval confrontations between China and Russia and the US and Japan could be expected, even in waters near the Sea of Japan.
The Russian Navy’s Pacific Fleet exercise on April 21 included simulating landings on Sakhalin Island and the Kuril Islands.
It is not difficult to envision Russia inviting China to participate in the development of Sakhalin Island, especially as Moscow has no infrastructure construction capabilities in the region. A CCP force might even be introduced to the contested Kuril Islands to share military tasks.
Coupled with North Korea’s frequent ballistic missile tests, the newly transformed geostrategic environment would make Japan more cautious under the umbrella of the “US-Japan alliance,” and would view security issues outside the Japanese archipelago with a conservative attitude.
The issues concerning the G7 have expanded to include countries’ military capabilities and national defense development, regional stability, global security, freedom and democratic alliances, information technology competition, and cooperation and environmental resource sustainability.
To achieve sustainable development and peace and stability in Taiwan, the government needs to show greater wisdom in dealing with cross-strait and geopolitical issues. After all, both sides of the Taiwan Strait have their own advantages and disadvantages. To maintain a dynamic balance in the treacherous and ever-changing international situation, it is necessary to comprehensively and wisely consider the rapid changes in geostrategies.
Chang Yan-ting is a retired air force lieutenant general and a professor emeritus at National Tsing Hua University.
Translated by Lin Lee-kai
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