The Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) Tsai Pei-hui (蔡培慧) narrowly beat the Chinese Nationalist Party’s (KMT) Lin Ming-chen (林明溱) in a legislative by-election in Nantou County on Saturday.
The victory is a boost for the DPP following a string of defeats at the polls, but it hardly assures the party victory in next year’s presidential election.
After suffering setbacks in last year’s nine-in-one elections, the Chiayi mayoral election and a legislative by-election in Taipei’s third electoral district, the DPP flipped a legislative seat with Tsai’s victory in Nantou, despite Lin, who had been a Nantou legislator and commissioner for more than a decade, having a comfortable lead in pre-election polls.
It is also the DPP’s first victory in the traditional KMT stronghold since the county was united as a single-seat electoral district in 2008.
The victory shows that DPP Chairman and Vice President William Lai (賴清德) can unite the party, and benefits his possible presidential bid.
The results of the by-election point to an electorate that used its voting power to punish Lin for his alleged involvement in several controversies, including abuse of privilege, and his failure to manage local affairs, such as garbage disposal, during his term as county commissioner, instead of one that embraced the DPP’s candidate.
Another likely factor was scare-mongering by the KMT, which told Nantou residents before the poll that “voting for the DPP would mean sending the youth to war.”
Although the slogan did not resonate with voters in the by-election, such extravagant claims about cross-strait issues would definitely hit closer to home ahead of national elections, especially after China’s Taiwan Affairs Office Director Song Tao (宋濤) said Beijing would reach out to pro-China individuals and groups in Taiwan to promote “national unification,” and would “take concrete measures to support Taiwanese compatriots and help them resolve difficulties.”
China is once again using its tired carrot-and-stick strategy in an attempt to divide Taiwanese society: On the one hand, it is meeting with KMT members in Beijing and selectively retracting import bans on Taiwanese products to benefit the party, while on the other, it is using military threats to intimidate the DPP and shake Taiwanese’s trust in their government.
It is likely that the Chinese Communist Party will again aid China-friendly parties and politicians in Taiwan to help them gain ground in next year’s national elections.
Although the Nantou victory boosted the DPP’s spirits, the government has come under fire for its proposed amendments to the General Mobilization Act (全民防衛動員準備法), high inflation, a stagnant economy and slow recovery from COVID-19, which could cost the party the presidential seat.
However, the result could also be seen as a setback for the KMT and its potential presidential candidates, including KMT Chairman Eric Chu (朱立倫) and New Taipei City Mayor Hou You-yi (侯友宜), both of whom have been partly blamed for the loss.
The by-election’s outcome might serve as a lesson for the KMT to revise its election strategy, curb infighting and concentrate on choosing a strong presidential candidate to take on the DPP.
The by-election ended in a surprising reversal for the county’s local politics. It also unlocked a new phase for the presidential election, accompanied with more domestic and external influencing factors that should not be overlooked.
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has long been expansionist and contemptuous of international law. Under Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平), the CCP regime has become more despotic, coercive and punitive. As part of its strategy to annex Taiwan, Beijing has sought to erase the island democracy’s international identity by bribing countries to sever diplomatic ties with Taipei. One by one, China has peeled away Taiwan’s remaining diplomatic partners, leaving just 12 countries (mostly small developing states) and the Vatican recognizing Taiwan as a sovereign nation. Taiwan’s formal international space has shrunk dramatically. Yet even as Beijing has scored diplomatic successes, its overreach
After more than a year of review, the National Security Bureau on Monday said it has completed a sweeping declassification of political archives from the Martial Law period, transferring the full collection to the National Archives Administration under the National Development Council. The move marks another significant step in Taiwan’s long journey toward transitional justice. The newly opened files span the architecture of authoritarian control: internal security and loyalty investigations, intelligence and counterintelligence operations, exit and entry controls, overseas surveillance of Taiwan independence activists, and case materials related to sedition and rebellion charges. For academics of Taiwan’s White Terror era —
After 37 US lawmakers wrote to express concern over legislators’ stalling of critical budgets, Legislative Speaker Han Kuo-yu (韓國瑜) pledged to make the Executive Yuan’s proposed NT$1.25 trillion (US$39.7 billion) special defense budget a top priority for legislative review. On Tuesday, it was finally listed on the legislator’s plenary agenda for Friday next week. The special defense budget was proposed by President William Lai’s (賴清德) administration in November last year to enhance the nation’s defense capabilities against external threats from China. However, the legislature, dominated by the opposition Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), repeatedly blocked its review. The
In her article in Foreign Affairs, “A Perfect Storm for Taiwan in 2026?,” Yun Sun (孫韻), director of the China program at the Stimson Center in Washington, said that the US has grown indifferent to Taiwan, contending that, since it has long been the fear of US intervention — and the Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) inability to prevail against US forces — that has deterred China from using force against Taiwan, this perceived indifference from the US could lead China to conclude that a window of opportunity for a Taiwan invasion has opened this year. Most notably, she observes that
RSS