The Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) Tsai Pei-hui (蔡培慧) narrowly beat the Chinese Nationalist Party’s (KMT) Lin Ming-chen (林明溱) in a legislative by-election in Nantou County on Saturday.
The victory is a boost for the DPP following a string of defeats at the polls, but it hardly assures the party victory in next year’s presidential election.
After suffering setbacks in last year’s nine-in-one elections, the Chiayi mayoral election and a legislative by-election in Taipei’s third electoral district, the DPP flipped a legislative seat with Tsai’s victory in Nantou, despite Lin, who had been a Nantou legislator and commissioner for more than a decade, having a comfortable lead in pre-election polls.
It is also the DPP’s first victory in the traditional KMT stronghold since the county was united as a single-seat electoral district in 2008.
The victory shows that DPP Chairman and Vice President William Lai (賴清德) can unite the party, and benefits his possible presidential bid.
The results of the by-election point to an electorate that used its voting power to punish Lin for his alleged involvement in several controversies, including abuse of privilege, and his failure to manage local affairs, such as garbage disposal, during his term as county commissioner, instead of one that embraced the DPP’s candidate.
Another likely factor was scare-mongering by the KMT, which told Nantou residents before the poll that “voting for the DPP would mean sending the youth to war.”
Although the slogan did not resonate with voters in the by-election, such extravagant claims about cross-strait issues would definitely hit closer to home ahead of national elections, especially after China’s Taiwan Affairs Office Director Song Tao (宋濤) said Beijing would reach out to pro-China individuals and groups in Taiwan to promote “national unification,” and would “take concrete measures to support Taiwanese compatriots and help them resolve difficulties.”
China is once again using its tired carrot-and-stick strategy in an attempt to divide Taiwanese society: On the one hand, it is meeting with KMT members in Beijing and selectively retracting import bans on Taiwanese products to benefit the party, while on the other, it is using military threats to intimidate the DPP and shake Taiwanese’s trust in their government.
It is likely that the Chinese Communist Party will again aid China-friendly parties and politicians in Taiwan to help them gain ground in next year’s national elections.
Although the Nantou victory boosted the DPP’s spirits, the government has come under fire for its proposed amendments to the General Mobilization Act (全民防衛動員準備法), high inflation, a stagnant economy and slow recovery from COVID-19, which could cost the party the presidential seat.
However, the result could also be seen as a setback for the KMT and its potential presidential candidates, including KMT Chairman Eric Chu (朱立倫) and New Taipei City Mayor Hou You-yi (侯友宜), both of whom have been partly blamed for the loss.
The by-election’s outcome might serve as a lesson for the KMT to revise its election strategy, curb infighting and concentrate on choosing a strong presidential candidate to take on the DPP.
The by-election ended in a surprising reversal for the county’s local politics. It also unlocked a new phase for the presidential election, accompanied with more domestic and external influencing factors that should not be overlooked.
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