After months of secrecy, the Chinese Communist Party Politburo on Tuesday last week finally revealed that its quinquennial 20th National Congress would be held on Oct. 16. That such an important event in China’s political calendar is kept under wraps until just over two weeks before it is to take place illustrates the highly brittle nature of the regime: The more the party keeps outsiders in the dark, the more secure it feels.
The specter of an internal rebellion is never far from the minds of China’s leaders, who fear internal challenges to their power far more than they do external enemies. This is borne out by its allocation of resources. Like the former Soviet Union and East Germany before it, the party is now spending more on internal security than on its military. Although history shows that this is unsustainable over the long term, in the short-to-medium term Taiwan faces an existential threat from a regime that sits atop an increasingly restless population.
Despite months of speculation that a rival faction led by former Chinese president Jiang Zemin (江澤民) might toss a wrench into Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) reappointment machine, having stamped his authority over the military and security apparatus, there is no indication that Xi will be prevented from extending his “mandate from hell” for another five years — although in reality, like all dictators, surrounded by enemies thirsting for revenge, Xi will have to remain on the throne until he is driven out of the Zhongnanhai leadership compound in a hearse.
While the Chinese state is always on edge during the lead up to a national congress, when it shuts down large swathes of the capital, mobilizes military units and polices speech with even more zeal than usual, this time there are palpable signs that the party is particularly on edge. Beijing has sent out the order to local governments: No major outbreak of COVID-19 before the congress and no social unrest. Local governments across China have responded with knee-jerk lockdowns, further damaging an economy already battered by three years of stop-start shutdowns and reopenings. Since Aug. 20, at least 74 Chinese cities with a combined population of 313 million have undergone lockdowns, a CNN report published on Monday showed.
Economically illiterate and a party ideologue through and through, Xi is clearly determined that nary a speck of dust will be allowed to tarnish his coronation as lifelong emperor. Suppression of the merest bat squeak of dissent online is already in full swing. A 137-character poem, titled Waiting for the Wind to Arrive (等風來) by poet Hu Minzhi (胡閔之), which uses the random nature of wind as a metaphor to skewer the absurdity of the party’s capricious rule, went viral after it was published at the end of last month. It has now been comprehensively scrubbed from the Chinese cybersphere. Meanwhile, a 3,000-character puff piece on Xi’s leadership is being promoted by Xinhua news agency.
There is speculation that Xi might reduce the number of Politburo Standing Committee members from seven to five to further centralize his power. If, as many are predicting, China suffers a major economic recession — or even depression — Xi might be tempted to switch strategy on Taiwan and risk bringing forward a timetable for a military invasion to divert the attention of a restive populace. If Xi’s coronation goes as planned, a window of danger would open for Taiwan that would not shut until Xi has shuffled off this mortal coil.
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