While the concept of a constitutional democracy as a form of government originated in ancient Athens circa 508 BC, only 6.4 percent of today’s global population, in 21 countries, are considered to be living under fully democratic governments. At the opposite end of the spectrum, 37.1 percent of the world’s population, in 59 countries, are under an authoritarian regime.
Turning autocracy into democracy has never been easy. Sometimes even if a country successfully achieves democracy, it might be taken away by another dictator.
One estimate shows that 3.5 percent of a country’s population must participate in a protest to topple an autocratic regime. Another hypothesis rules it out by suggesting that if the police or army remain loyal to a dictator, an institutional band of weaponry can quell an uprising by brutal force. Worse, authoritarian regimes could get help from other dictators to hold onto power even if an uprising is strong enough to readily overthrow the government.
Any social or political development is a nonlinear “many body” phenomenon. Therefore, it is highly unpredictable. However, some insight might be offered from a statistical estimate. For example, per capita wealth, upon reaching a certain level, could help a country become democratic. Other factors are education, leadership, media freedom and, most importantly, the will of the people to fight for a better tomorrow.
“Give me liberty or give me death” is the motto that has defeated tyrants.
The pain of living under a dictatorship is not felt equally by the general population, as most people hold the attitude that the sky is high and the emperor is far away. That is, until depravity and cruelty descends upon them. When that happens, it is too late for any alternative.
Even working in an authoritarian country is risky. Norma Blackie, a 28-year-old English teacher from South Africa, died in a COVID-19 lockdown in Shanghai. While her cause of death due to hunger is yet to be confirmed, numerous deaths due to lack of urgent care under China’s “zero COVID” policy were reported. Violinist Chen Shunping (陳順平) took his own life after he was refused hospital treatment.
The stupidest approach to fend off a pandemic, by quarantining people to death, can only come from incompetent and unqualified officials, whose unpopular and irresponsible acts cause tragedies without being held responsible by the people. That says a lot about the importance of democracy.
By and large, dictators are supported only by a handful of loyalists. Some might enjoy unconstrained power and unjust wealth, others might be too intimidated to disobey orders. Dictators often control officials through cruelty and fear, and the people through propaganda and disinformation.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un ordered the killing of his uncle, Jang Song-thaek, a former minister of the state security department, whose body was displayed to senior officials with its decapitated head sitting resting on the chest.
During the Ukraine war, one of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s top military chiefs, General Roman Gavrilov, was reportedly arrested by the Russian Federal Security Service, and two Russian security officials were placed under house arrest. Putin murdered many of his critics, and jailed Alexei Navalny, a prominent opposition leader, lawyer and anticorruption fighter.
China does not fare better. In the past five years, 35 members of the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) powerful Central Committee have been disciplined. That is as many as in all the years between 1949 and 2012, not to mention the business tycoons who disappeared, died “accidentally” or were arrested.
Freedom is not free. It takes guts and blood to defend it, let alone to make it happen. Rights of life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness can hardly be guaranteed in non-democratic political systems, and even in democracies, they are fragile if not handled with care.
The free world’s economic sanctions might turn Russia into the North Korea of Europe, and a “zero COVID” policy and the nation-centered economy might wipe out years of economic progress in China. It is unclear whether enduring the neverending brutality of an oppressive regime is less painful than toppling a government through revolution or civil disobedience.
The alternative to a democratic government is more horrible by many orders of magnitude. An uncivilized and unreasonable tyrant might commit atrocities and genocides beyond belief, not just on the individual level, but consider the possibility of a nuclear missile launched by a mad dictator. The world is awakening to this truth. It is time to demand change and implement checks and balances, along with separations of power, in autocratic countries such as China and Russia.
A great many countries never had democracy in their history. That leads to the question of whether these countries could ever become democratic. Martin Luther King Jr once said: “The arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends toward justice.”
All people deserve justice without exception, whether Chinese, Russian or otherwise.
Culture and institutions are the two legs for a society to move toward justice and equality. Alexis de Tocqueville in 1835 said in Democracy in America that a grassroots culture of religion, immigration, and adherence to the law laid the foundation of democracy in the US.
Yet the institutional integrity of its judiciary, legislative and executive branches are what enabled the experiment of a great democracy.
It is important to have hope, and it is even more important to keep trying. The strategy has to go from the bottom up by reinforcing a culture that includes freedom of religion, information, media and protest. It must also go from the top down by reshaping institutions and drafting a constitution to elect an administration that would write legislation at all levels of government.
Most importantly, a scrutinizing and critical opposition party is required to hold a ruling party accountable, and replace it when necessary.
The free world should not shut the door on helping democratic movements in any country. In China, second-generation CCP member Yang Xiaoping (楊小平), at his 80th birthday party, expressed hope that he would see China turn into a constitutional democracy in his lifetime. This shows that people’s will for liberty and equality is strong.
Opposition leaders in Russia are also prepared to steer their country in the right direction. Lending a helping hand to a pro-democracy movement is what a good neighbor should do, as we are neighbors on earth.
When the time comes, a single spark can start a prairie fire. Opportunities are reserved for those who are prepared.
James J.Y. Hsu is a retired physics professor who taught at National Cheng Kung University, and is a member and former president of the North America Taiwanese Professors’ Association.
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