Just as the cause of the Kursk submarine disaster remains shrouded in mystery — the nuclear-powered Russian submarine suffered an explosion during a naval exercise on Aug. 12, 2000, and sank, killing all 118 crew onboard — it is unlikely that we will ever get to the bottom of the sequence of events last month that led to the sinking of the Moskva guided missile cruiser, the flagship of the Russian navy’s Black Sea fleet. Ukraine claims it struck the vessel with two missiles, while Russia says ammunition onboard the ship exploded and the ship tipped over while being towed back to port.
However, if one removes the multilayered defensive capabilities of the Moskva from the equation — its air defense, anti-missile and electronic warfare systems — and examines the battlespace using a tactical mindset, it is possible to gain a clearer understanding of what might have occurred, and also predict the future direction of naval warfare.
Ever since Moscow initiated its “special military operation” against Ukraine, the Moskva had been patrolling the Black Sea, on standby to provide an air defense umbrella to the amphibious taskforce waiting offshore from the port city of Odessa. In the final moments before the first missile struck, the Moskva was sailing on a course 24 nautical miles (44km) from Snake Island and 80 nautical miles from Odessa, in international waters.
A Turkish-made Baykar Bayraktar TB2 uncrewed aerial vehicle (UAV), operated by the Ukrainian military, was hovering at a high altitude to identify and then gain a fix on the Moskva. Meanwhile, a US Navy Boeing P-8 Poseidon surveillance aircraft, operating along the Romanian coast, was carrying out surveillance and reconaissance. Both of these assets presented a serious threat to the Moskva as they could provide the Ukrainian military’s shore-based Neptune anti-ship missile battery with precise location and targeting information.
The Moskva was equipped with S-300F Fort (SA-N-6 Grumble) long-range surface-to-air missiles, OSA-MA (SA-N-4 Gecko) SR S short-range surface-to-air missiles, the AK-630 close-in weapons system, as well as electronic protection and electronic attack systems.
The Moskva appears to have been threatened with multiple, near-saturation-level air attacks, during the course of which the ship was hit by two Neptune missiles. The attack highlights the nature of modern warfare, which is increasingly defined by cross-platform attacks and all-domain gray zone conflicts.
Although the Baykar Bayraktar UAV does not possess satellite link capability, it does have a tactical data link, which allowed for cross-platform communication with the P-8 Poseidon, Neptune anti-ship missile mobile units and the Ukrainian military’s southern command headquarters.
This network of communications capability allows Ukraine’s military to carry out seamless “C5ISRT” (a US military acronym which stands for command, control, communications, computers, combat systems, intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance and targeting). Interoperability with the militaries of NATO member nations and other international partners is a capability that has been carefully honed over more than a decade, through the Ukrainian military’s participation in annual naval exercises in the Black Sea, dubbed “Exercise Sea Breeze.”
This integrated method of warfare was set out by US Chief of Naval Operations Michael Gilda in the document Navigation Plan 2021, in which the ability to conduct “all-domain operations” was given significant weighting.
The Ukrainian and US militaries’ exploitation of “gray zone” non-traditional, non-conventional force was in full play in the attack on the Moskva: the Baykar Bayraktar UAV and P-8 Poseidon were both flying in international waters, collecting intelligence, and conducting surveillance and reconnaissance. Although the Moskva’s radar was able to detect the presence of both aircraft, the ship’s crew might not have been able to immediately establish the nationality of the aircraft.
To avoid mistakenly attacking a NATO aircraft and contravening Article 2(4) of the UN Charter, which forbids the use of force against another UN member state, and to avoid invoking Article 51, which allows for “collective self-defense” should an attack occur against a UN member state, the ship’s captain would have had to constantly radio back to his superiors for instructions. It is possible to surmise that this is the main reason for the delayed anti-aircraft and anti-missile actions of the ship.
The Ministry of National Defense’s modernization program for the military over the past few years has revolved around innovative asymmetric thinking. The ministry should draw several lessons from the Moskva’s sinking. First, it must consider how it could link together the platforms of each military branch to form a single integrated system. Second, it should explore the possibility of conducting regular “interoperability exercises” with the militaries of friendly countries, such as the US and Japan, so that the military would have the ability to mount an effective deterrence against the Chinese military by conducting “all-domain operations.”
Lu Li-shih is a former instructor at the Republic of China Naval Academy and a former captain of the ROCS Hsin Chiang.
Translated by Edward Jones
When US budget carrier Southwest Airlines last week announced a new partnership with China Airlines, Southwest’s social media were filled with comments from travelers excited by the new opportunity to visit China. Of course, China Airlines is not based in China, but in Taiwan, and the new partnership connects Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport with 30 cities across the US. At a time when China is increasing efforts on all fronts to falsely label Taiwan as “China” in all arenas, Taiwan does itself no favors by having its flagship carrier named China Airlines. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs is eager to jump at
The muting of the line “I’m from Taiwan” (我台灣來欸), sung in Hoklo (commonly known as Taiwanese), during a performance at the closing ceremony of the World Masters Games in New Taipei City on May 31 has sparked a public outcry. The lyric from the well-known song All Eyes on Me (世界都看見) — originally written and performed by Taiwanese hip-hop group Nine One One (玖壹壹) — was muted twice, while the subtitles on the screen showed an alternate line, “we come here together” (阮作伙來欸), which was not sung. The song, performed at the ceremony by a cheerleading group, was the theme
Secretary of State Marco Rubio raised eyebrows recently when he declared the era of American unipolarity over. He described America’s unrivaled dominance of the international system as an anomaly that was created by the collapse of the Soviet Union at the end of the Cold War. Now, he observed, the United States was returning to a more multipolar world where there are great powers in different parts of the planet. He pointed to China and Russia, as well as “rogue states like Iran and North Korea” as examples of countries the United States must contend with. This all begs the question:
In China, competition is fierce, and in many cases suppliers do not get paid on time. Rather than improving, the situation appears to be deteriorating. BYD Co, the world’s largest electric vehicle manufacturer by production volume, has gained notoriety for its harsh treatment of suppliers, raising concerns about the long-term sustainability. The case also highlights the decline of China’s business environment, and the growing risk of a cascading wave of corporate failures. BYD generally does not follow China’s Negotiable Instruments Law when settling payments with suppliers. Instead the company has created its own proprietary supply chain finance system called the “D-chain,” through which
RSS