In an article published in Foreign Policy magazine titled “China is a declining power — and that’s the problem,” two highly reputable academics use “power transition theory” (PTT) as a base for their arguments.
PTT was founded by my adviser at Claremont Graduate University, Jacek Kugler, and his mentor, A.F.K. Organski.
PTT believes that the unipolar world dominated by a single hegemony (from 1990 to last year) is the most stable setup in international relations compared with the bipolar (US-Soviet Union) or multipolar (Europe before World War II) world.
Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) is undermining the current state of unipolar stability.
PTT believes that great power wars usually occur at the intersection of the rise of an emerging hegemony and the decline of the reigning “status quo” hegemony.
The two authors believe that in the past 150 years, emerging powers that have peaked and then plateaued — after experiencing a severe, long-term slowdown — usually do not quietly disappear.
Instead, they become arrogant and aggressive. They suppress dissent at home and try to regain economic momentum by establishing exclusive spheres of influence abroad. They invest a lot of money in the military and apply force to expand their influence.
This behavior usually triggers tensions between major powers. In some cases, it involves catastrophic wars.
The current situation of the Chinese Communist Party regime reflects the above scenario.
I must agree with most of the points of the Foreign Policy article. The good news is that the disastrous power of nuclear bombs might make all parties more prudent. The bad news is that misperception from China could still trigger a devastating major war.
My take, as well as that of the two authors, is that the fate of the world is in Xi’s hands and Taiwan is the main flashpoint.
Regardless of whether China’s power is declining or not, it is its elites’ perception that counts. Judging from Xi’s recent paranoid foreign and domestic policies, I conclude that he thinks he and his party are in trouble. That “misperception” will get the whole world into trouble.
I also conclude that Xi’s recent heavy-handed, centralized, overreaching economic and financial policies will stifle China’s economy; but it will take time to manifest unless everything I have learned since my college years is capitalist brainwashing garbage.
An authoritarian government that practices national capitalism such as Nazi Germany or China before Xi, under former Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping (鄧小平), may be a superior economic model if it can rein in its aggressive expansionism.
However, there is not a single government since the 20th century that has succeeded with the radical nationalization policy that Xi is now trying.
Xi has staked his reputation on Taiwan. When he turns 70 two years from now, he is going to become increasingly aware that his time is running out. People do not get into his position without having enormous egos, which they project out all through their lifetimes, so they become invested in the ridiculous belief that their “legacies” matter to them.
All in all, Taiwan is a big concern.
I hope Taiwan’s government and its people realize that. Buckle up everyone — the perfect storm is coming.
Simon Tang is an adjunct professor at California State University, Fullerton.
Speaking at the Copenhagen Democracy Summit on May 13, former president Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) said that democracies must remain united and that “Taiwan’s security is essential to regional stability and to defending democratic values amid mounting authoritarianism.” Earlier that day, Tsai had met with a group of Danish parliamentarians led by Danish Parliament Speaker Pia Kjaersgaard, who has visited Taiwan many times, most recently in November last year, when she met with President William Lai (賴清德) at the Presidential Office. Kjaersgaard had told Lai: “I can assure you that ... you can count on us. You can count on our support
Denmark has consistently defended Greenland in light of US President Donald Trump’s interests and has provided unwavering support to Ukraine during its war with Russia. Denmark can be proud of its clear support for peoples’ democratic right to determine their own future. However, this democratic ideal completely falls apart when it comes to Taiwan — and it raises important questions about Denmark’s commitment to supporting democracies. Taiwan lives under daily military threats from China, which seeks to take over Taiwan, by force if necessary — an annexation that only a very small minority in Taiwan supports. Denmark has given China a
Many local news media over the past week have reported on Internet personality Holger Chen’s (陳之漢) first visit to China between Tuesday last week and yesterday, as remarks he made during a live stream have sparked wide discussions and strong criticism across the Taiwan Strait. Chen, better known as Kuan Chang (館長), is a former gang member turned fitness celebrity and businessman. He is known for his live streams, which are full of foul-mouthed and hypermasculine commentary. He had previously spoken out against the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and criticized Taiwanese who “enjoy the freedom in Taiwan, but want China’s money”
Last month, two major diplomatic events unfolded in Southeast Asia that suggested subtle shifts in the region’s strategic landscape. The 46th ASEAN Summit and the inaugural ASEAN-Gulf-Cooperation Council (GCC)-China Trilateral Summit in Kuala Lumpur coincided with French President Emmanuel Macron’s high-profile visits to Vietnam, Indonesia and Singapore. Together, they highlighted ASEAN’s maturing global posture, deepening regional integration and China’s intensifying efforts to recalibrate its economic diplomacy amid uncertainties posed by the US. The ASEAN summit took place amid rising protectionist policies from the US, notably sweeping tariffs on goods from Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam, with duties as high as 49 percent.
RSS