The first face-to-face round of talks between officials from China and US President Joe Biden’s administration in Anchorage, Alaska, on Thursday and Friday last week was hardly expected to run smoothly, given the preceding rancor between the two sides on a host of thorny issues — Uighur genocide, Tibet, human rights breaches in Hong Kong, the South China Sea, threats to Taiwan, etc.
The Chinese side included Yang Jiechi (楊潔篪), a former minister of foreign affairs and since 2014, the director of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission Office of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), who is generally regarded as one of the foremost contemporary architects of China’s foreign policy. Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi (王毅) also participated. The US side was represented by Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan.
Yang threw away any semblance of diplomatic nicety when he launched into a diatribe, and bluntly said that the US did not have the “qualification” to say that it wants to speak to China from a position of strength.
However, it was not just the Uighur persecution, which Blinken — like his predecessor, Mike Pompeo — characterized as “genocide” or the gross violations of human rights in Hong Kong, but also China’s “unacceptable” threats against Taiwan, which many experts perceive as a prelude to an invasion. Pundits and foreign policy wonks believe that the Chinese side was irked in particular by Blinken’s emphatic avowal that it would stand up for friends facing Chinese belligerence.
This was taken as a US affirmation that it would, along with its allies and friends, strongly resist any move by Beijing to crush Hong Kong’s already frail liberties, or invade democratic Taiwan and annex it as part of China.
The Chinese interlocutors used tone and arguments, reminiscent of the unpleasant encounter between then-Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev and then-US president John F. Kennedy, when the former thundered ominously over Berlin and bluntly asked the US to stop challenging Soviet global ambitions.
The Biden administration, unlike the administration of former US president Donald Trump, has been harnessing support and solidarity from allies and friends. This is absolutely necessary if the US is to stand up effectively for friends against China’s aggressive designs. Already supported by its Indo-Pacific allies, the Biden administration should send a clear message telling China that the US will resolutely defend Taiwan, a friend.
While Blinken has already said that the US would stand by its friends, the Taiwan issue has become something of an Achilles’ heel for Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平), who is being closely watched by his rivals in the communist party on his promise to “deliver” Taiwan. Washington needs to remind China of the dangers a war over Taiwan will pose not only for the entire region, but also, particularly, for China.
“This is how the US can avert a potential Berlin or a Cuban scenario in the Taiwan Straits. You have to send a clear warning about the consequences for China,” a foreign policy pundit said on condition of anonymity.
Washington and its allies have also been closely following attempts by communist hardliners to pass a so-called national reunification law on Taiwan. During a press briefing a few weeks back, Taiwan Affairs Office spokesperson Zhu Fenglian (朱鳳蓮) said that China would “take all necessary measures” for Taiwan’s “peaceful reunification” with the mainland, but if this did not happen, Beijing would “smash to pieces” any attempts for independence by Taiwan.
This new move appears to reiterate China’s “Anti-Secession” Law, which provides a fig leaf for China to commit naked aggression against Taiwan if it formally declared independence or if it did not return to the “motherland’s fold.”
The enactment of this measure would suggest that the time has come for Taiwan to become part of China after possibilities for a peaceful reunification have been exhausted. The US’ ability or willingness to defend Taiwan will play a crucial factor in China’s calculations.
The Biden administration is alert on the Chinese threat to Taiwan. Senior US military officials have warned that Beijing could launch an invasion of Taiwan in the next few years. An invasion would trigger a major calamity for the entire region, which would be afflicted by chaos and turmoil, possibly forcing the US into a frontal armed conflict with China.
Although the Biden administration has many China experts and advisers who had served under the administration of former US president Barack Obama and helped formulate the “pivot to Asia” strategy, it is urgent to create an effective strategy to deter China’s attempts to seize Taiwan.
Jeffrey Prescott, a former security adviser and a senior Asia adviser to Biden during his vice presidential term, has said that it was urgent to “identify areas where we can bring collective leverage on China,” while pointing out that the Trump administration’s failure stemmed from its attempt to do things alone, alienating allies and friends, and thus giving China an “escape hatch.”
What can the Biden administration do? It can, as a start, unambiguously warn China that it would be willing to support Taiwan and ensure that it would be able to defend itself. Such clarity would also dispel Chinese misperceptions about Washington’s intentions to engage in a war over Taiwan.
The Biden administration is already keeping up the pressure on Beijing by retaining the Trump administration’s tariffs and sanctions, and Biden’s foreign policy and national security team has been holding talks with allies and friends — such as US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Blinken visiting Japan — on creating a deterrence against China’s aggressive posturing on several issues, including Taiwan.
The Biden administration could also create a forward-based force in the Pacific, strengthen defense ties with Japan and Australia, and provide assistance to meet Taiwan’s defense needs. Setting up such a force will send a strong message to Beijing about the futility of its use of military means to settle its dispute with Taiwan.
However, Washington will have to get its allies and friends on board to create a strong collective deterrence against Beijing’s belligerence. Collectively standing up to China for friends will be more effective than putting up solo resistance. There is strength in unity — and numbers.
Manik Mehta is a New York-based journalist.
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