Mon, Jan 05, 2026 page8

• Richard D. Fisher, Jr. On Taiwan: 2026: The Year To Lose Our Fear Of China

  • • 
    • 
    • 

  This should be the year in which the democracies, especially those in East Asia, lose their fear of the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) “one China principle” plus its nuclear “Cognitive Warfare” coercion strategies, all designed to achieve hegemony without fighting.

  For 2025, stoking regional and global fear was a major goal for the CCP and its People’s Liberation Army (PLA), following on Mao Zedong’s (毛澤東) Little Red Book admonition, “We must be ruthless to our enemies; we must overpower and annihilate them.”

  But on Dec. 17, 2025, the Trump Administration demonstrated direct defiance of CCP terror with its record US$11.1 billion arms sales package for Taiwan, that in part triggered the CCP’s surprise Dec. 29-30, 2025 “Justice Mission 2025” blockade exercise circling Taiwan with over 200 combat aircraft over two days, a high of 25 PLA Navy and Coast Guard ships, and firing 27 guided artillery rockets.

  

  While the government of President William Lai Ching-te (賴清德) held its cool, a fraction of Taiwan’s Sky Bow surface-to-air missiles could have dispatched the PLA aircraft, while Taiwan’s planned eight Hai Kun submarines will deploy over 200 torpedoes to sink PLA ships.

  But when completed, this latest US arms package will advance Taiwan’s anti-invasion “Porcupine” strategy with: 500 of the 300-400km range ATACMS short range ballistic missile (first advocated by this column on Jan. 10, 2011, https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2011/01/10/2003493102); 1,200x 90km or so range precision guided artillery rockets; in addition to the 2020 sale of 400x 150km range land-based Harpoon anti-ship missiles.

  Just as important, this package includes nearly 2,500 Javelin and TOW anti-tank guided missiles and begins wider US-Taiwan cooperation in advanced unmanned weapons with the sale of US unmanned-systems leader Anduril’s Altius-700M loitering munition drone, opening the potential for coproduction of tens of thousands of cheap autonomous strike munitions.

  In addition to sanctioning 20 US defense companies and 10 defense industry leaders on Dec. 26, China is threatening direct military action: On Guancha on Dec. 25, CCP Propaganda Department heavy Professor Jin Canrong (金燦榮) suggested, “the Chinese Coast Guard could board and inspect ships suspected of carrying US-sold weapons to Taiwan, and directly escort cargo ships indeed carrying such weapons to mainland ports for unloading.”

  The CCP also requires theater and strategic (intercontinental) nuclear superiority in order to coerce the US, Japan and others from stopping the CCP from invading (murdering, pillaging) Taiwan to enforce its “one China principle,” for which the CCP and its vast propaganda combine seek to enforce a level of obedience approaching that of international law.

  The late December 2025 issue of the United States Department of War’s annual China Military Power Report (CMPR) reveals that 100 of the PLA Rocket Force’s (PLARF) 320 new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) silos have been filled — most likely by the new DF-31BJ first shown in the CCP’s massive Sept. 3, 2025, military parade.

  But when all 320 silos are filled, this could mean the PLARF could be aiming up to 2,560 new small 110 kilogram “5x5” warheads at the US; this follows from the Dec. 9, 2025, presentation at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, D.C., by Beijing University PhD and Harvard University China nuclear expert Zhang Hui (張輝).

  Based on his new research on China’s nuclear testing and weapons development, Zhang asserted that “5/8” or five-to-eight of the 5x5 warheads could fit on the DF-31AG ICBM, which most likely fills the DF-31BJ’s cold-launch tube lowered into a silo — which would handily exceed previous US estimates that the PLA would have 1,500 warheads by 2035 — as well as the current US deployed warhead count of about 1,500.

  But if proof is needed that Taiwan, South Korea, the United States and others need not tolerate the “one China” principle’s license for CCP murder, or the CCP’s broader military-political Cognitive Warfare coercion, consider the profile in courage offered by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.

  Since her election as PM on Oct. 21, 2025, Takaichi has withstood a CCP coercion campaign unprecedented even for this odious dictatorship, especially following her Nov. 7 comments in the Japanese Diet that a Chinese naval blockade of Taiwan would constitute a “survival-threatening situation,” triggering 2015 Japanese security legislation allowing military cooperation with Washington.

  CCP fury and coercive actions against Japan included:

  ‧ Chinese Osaka Consul General Xue Jian’s (薛劍) Nov. 8 statement on the “X” platform to “cut off that filthy head” of Takaichi.

  ‧ Elevation of a political and social media campaign to deny the legitimacy of the peace with Japan stipulated in the 1951 San Francisco Treaty and to more vocally support the independence from Japan of the Ryukyu Island Chain, and even that the Ryukyus should be controlled by China.

  ‧ Repeated threats of military action by Chinese spokesmen and the use of third-level state media Guancha to publish a Nov. 18, 2025, article, “Nuclear Strike Plan Against Japan,” suggesting the use of 72 nuclear warheads against Japanese military and economic targets.

  ‧ Extending Taiwan-style PLA naval-air power coercion to Japan, combining a Dec. 5-12 PLA Navy sortie along the Eastern Ryukyus by the aircraft carrier Liaoning strike group, with the 10th PLA-Russia joint bomber exercise on Dec. 9, with 4x nuclear bombers and 10x escorting strike fighters — also deployed to the Eastern Ryukyus.

  Through this CCP coercion Takaichi maintained her calm: On Dec. 9 the Japan Air Self-Defense Force exercised 16x F-2 strike fighters each armed with 4x ASM-2 anti-ship missiles; Dec. 26 saw Japanese Cabinet approval of a record US$58 billion defense budget that includes purchases of new 1,000km range Type-12 ground attack missiles, and 1,500km range US Tomahawk cruise missiles.

  A Dec. 23 Yomiuri Shimbun poll reflected strong Japanese public support, a 73 percent approval rating for Takaichi’s government.

  Should the Chinese Coast Guard try to interdict US arms shipments to Taiwan, the Taiwan and US Coast Guards should coordinate with that of Japan, which has years of experience countering the Coast Guard, as a first level of defense of US arms shipments to Taiwan, but there are other measures to be considered for 2026:

  ‧ Porcupine The Sakashimas: A close 110km east of Taiwan, Japan’s Yonaguni island will soon receive 50km range Chu-SAM anti-aircraft/drone missiles, as it also hosts an advanced US Marine Corps refueling base, but Yonaguni and the nearby Ishigaki and Miyakojima islands should be equipped to host Japanese and US Marine F-35B short take-off 5th-generation fighters and hundreds of longer range Type-12 missiles.

  Japan should purchase another 40 F-35Bs for stationing on the Sakashimas and the US should accelerate development of the 800-1,000km range Lockheed Martin PrSM anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) that should be deployed to the Ryukyus and sold to Taiwan.

  ‧ More US Theater Nukes: An Asian theater nuclear balance that has long favored China, and now North Korea, has long generated a desire for nuclear weapons in South Korea, and also in Japan, that became public on Dec. 18 when Japan’s Kyodo News reported that an unnamed “source within Japan’s prime minister’s office” said “I think we should possess nuclear weapons.”

  While a Japanese spokesman pointedly denied this that same day, it highlights the urgency for the US to work with Seoul, Tokyo, Manila and Canberra to devise the most acceptable manner to re-introduce US tactical nuclear weapons into the region, meaning the US must also develop new nuclear warheads for its new medium and intermediate-range ballistic missiles and nuclear artillery shells that would be most effective in stopping PLA and North Korean invasion forces.

  ‧ Prepare For The Re-Invasion: In June 1950, former US President Harry Truman reacted immediately to the North Korean invasion of South Korea by deploying US combined forces to the Korean Peninsula, and though he may not have known this was a joint Soviet-Communist Chinese and North Korean operation, Truman did grasp that stopping this invasion was necessary to deter Communist aggression elsewhere.

  By the same measure, a final defeat of a CCP invasion of Taiwan may require that the US and Japan be prepared to re-invade Taiwan, or be ready to commit ground forces and not rely wholly on naval and air power — again to prevent the CCP from launching a wider conflict, starting with an invasion of the Ryukyus and some major Philippine islands.

  While the combined forces of the US Marines and US Navy could transport troops in the 10,000-20,000 range, it is necessary to work with Japan to modify many of its 360 or so large Pure Car and Truck Carrier (PCTC) ships to move 100,000 troops plus light armored forces to Taiwan.

  ‧ Demonize the “one China principle”: While all of these military preparations, especially the nuclear options, will add to the allied deterrence of a CCP invasion of Taiwan and check North Korean nuclear aggression, it is also necessary to undertake a complementary political warfare campaign that demonizes the CCP’s “one China principle.”

  There should be a coordinated Washington-Tokyo-Taipei campaign to convince all nations that the CCP’s “one China principle” does not give China the right to murder Taiwanese, arguing further that any state that submits to regular CCP demands to repeat and obey its “one China principle” is only legitimizing any future CCP contortion of history or conflicts to justify the CCP’s invasion of that state as well.

  Richard D. Fisher, Jr. is a senior fellow with the International Assessment and Strategy Center.
• Most Popular

  • 1

    First person arrested as Danjiang Bridge opens

  • 2

    TSMC shares stumble on report, but losses minor

  • 3

    Police identify man who engaged in indecency at park

  • 4

    TSMC expects global chip revenue to hit US$1.5tn

  • 5

    Trump weighs Taiwan arms package