A survey conducted by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) on support for potential candidates for the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) chair election, scheduled for July, makes uncomfortable reading for KMT Chairman Johnny Chiang (江啟臣).
The results show overwhelming support for his rival, former New Taipei City mayor Eric Chu (朱立倫).
If they are accurate across the board, KMT voters are looking to eschew the outsider National Policy Foundation vice chairman Sean Lien (連勝文); keep their distance from the populist upstart former Kaohsiung mayor Han Kuo-yu (韓國瑜); say thanks, but no thanks to the stumbling incumbent, Chiang; and opt for Chu, the moderately proven old faithful.
Chiang accepted the challenge of becoming chairman in the immediate aftermath of the party’s heavy defeat in last year’s presidential election. Chu did not run.
If the analysis once was that Chiang had boasting rights for stepping up to the plate, while Chu should be ashamed for spurning the poisoned chalice, Chu’s reticence now looks like a shrewd move.
Like the absent son, Chu was potentially vulnerable to accusations of neglecting his filial duties, but has also avoided doing actual wrong. On the other hand, Chiang’s missteps and miscalculations over the past year have damaged his image in the eyes of important sections of KMT voters.
Chiang has been offending the KMT old guard with talk of reform and worrying moderate voters with his increasingly puerile tactics in the legislature, while at the same time getting on Beijing’s wrong side without divesting his party of the image of a distinctly pro-China clique prepared to throw away its traditional enmity toward the Chinese Communist Party.
His foundering reform program has left him open to criticism by young KMT supporters for failing to deliver on promises made in last year’s chair election campaign.
It is also possible that his foray into cooperation with the Taiwan People’s Party, attempting to open the door to a blue-white coalition against the DPP, has convinced nobody, and even opened him up to further suspicion from the KMT ranks.
He has been hoisted with his own petard, while Chu has been patiently watching from the sidelines of the battlefield.
Something could still alter the dynamic, but at the very least, as a snapshot of the present, it does appear that Chiang’s tactics and his performance so far — despite his claims of heroism, staunch resolve and strong stewardship — are simply not working.
His poor showing among the younger generation might not be the biggest of his concerns, but it is certainly the most interesting for observers.
In the 20-to-29 age group of KMT supporters, Chiang was backed by only 10.2 percent, which is not only far behind Chu’s 52.3 percent, but also behind Lien’s 17.6 percent. Unsurprisingly, Han only received 3.9 percent support among this group.
Chiang has been touted as the youngest person ever to assume the KMT chairmanship, and he began his journey in that position by appealing to the young vote, promising to listen to disgruntled voices for reform and to steer the party in a new direction, informed by their opinions.
While the odds were stacked against him, those odds have thus far got the better of him, most glaringly in the eyes of young people.
Despite protestations that he has only been in the post for a year, which was never going to be enough time to change the course of such a large, complex, disparate and conservative institution, it seems that time is a luxury he does not have.
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