Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on Monday announced that she would dissolve parliament on Friday. Although the snap election on Feb. 8 might appear to be a domestic affair, it would have real implications for Taiwan and regional security.
Whether the Takaichi-led coalition can advance a stronger security policy lies in not just gaining enough seats in parliament to pass legislation, but also in a public mandate to push forward reforms to upgrade the Japanese military. As one of Taiwan’s closest neighbors, a boost in Japan’s defense capabilities would serve as a strong deterrent to China in acting unilaterally in the region. Takaichi has publicly reiterated the long-standing defense policy that an armed attack against Taiwan would be a threat to Japanese national security — one that could trigger Japan’s self-defense forces to mobilize.
As China employs numerous “gray zone” tactics in its quest to seize Taiwan, having one of the nation’s geographically closest partners, equipped with top advanced and sophisticated naval and air defense technology and firepower, on its side is a game changer. One of China’s prime goals is to domesticize its disputes with Taiwan. Takaichi’s comments on Japanese involvement in a potential Chinese attack on Taiwan proves how incoherent that narrative is.
Apart from deploying its military, China is also building a maritime militia to form expansive sea barriers in disputed waters near Taiwan and Japan. On Jan. 11, it mobilized more than 2,000 fishing boats in the East China Sea. Some analysts said that Beijing is coordinating a similar maneuver in the region’s skies with the 3,000 civilian aircraft under its flag. Takaichi has already pledged to raise the national defense budget to 2 percent of GDP, while her administration has drawn plans to deploy anti-aircraft missiles that could hit major Chinese cities, in Yonaguni, one of Japan’s closest islands to Taiwan.
Riley Walters, Japan senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, believes that the election is necessary for Takaichi to reclaim power in the Diet and implement her vision of a stronger national security strategy. Takaichi has vowed to tackle various Chinese threats, whether direct military coercion, Taiwan’s security, espionage and other veiled threats, such as land acquisitions at sensitive locations near Japan’s military assets.
A large win will ensure that she has a strong mandate in implementing stronger defense capabilities. As many opposition parties do not share her view and advocate rapprochement with China, with some demanding that she retract her statement on Taiwan, a decisive win will make opposition to stronger defense less emboldened. It would also give her more bargaining power with her party’s ruling coalition partner and the Democratic Party for the People, a rising party that has consistently polled in the top three that Takaichi hopes to work closer with to realize her national security goals.
The latest JNN poll showed Takaichi’s popularity rising to 78 percent as of last week. Other large national polls show her at 92 percent among those aged 18 to 29, and more than 65 percent for all other age groups. Whether that would translate into votes remains to be seen. What is certain is that the outcome would likely affect Taiwan and the region’s overall security trajectory in the face of increasing Chinese threats and coercion.
Rath Wang is a senior policy fellow at Safe Spaces, a consulting firm based in Taipei and Washington focusing on Taiwan’s politics, media, civil society and key issues influencing Taiwan’s future. He is a producer and host of political talk shows and podcasts, and has worked on political campaigns and advocacies in Taiwan, Japan and the US.
In the first year of his second term, US President Donald Trump continued to shake the foundations of the liberal international order to realize his “America first” policy. However, amid an atmosphere of uncertainty and unpredictability, the Trump administration brought some clarity to its policy toward Taiwan. As expected, bilateral trade emerged as a major priority for the new Trump administration. To secure a favorable trade deal with Taiwan, it adopted a two-pronged strategy: First, Trump accused Taiwan of “stealing” chip business from the US, indicating that if Taipei did not address Washington’s concerns in this strategic sector, it could revisit its Taiwan
In a stark reminder of China’s persistent territorial overreach, Pema Wangjom Thongdok, a woman from Arunachal Pradesh holding an Indian passport, was detained for 18 hours at Shanghai Pudong Airport on Nov. 24 last year. Chinese immigration officials allegedly informed her that her passport was “invalid” because she was “Chinese,” refusing to recognize her Indian citizenship and claiming Arunachal Pradesh as part of South Tibet. Officials had insisted that Thongdok, an Indian-origin UK resident traveling for a conference, was not Indian despite her valid documents. India lodged a strong diplomatic protest, summoning the Chinese charge d’affaires in Delhi and demanding
Immediately after the Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) “Justice Mission” exercise at the end of last year, a question was posed to Indian Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal regarding recent developments involving the exercises around Taiwan, and how he viewed their impact on regional peace and stability. His answer was somewhat perplexing to me as a curious student of Taiwanese affairs. “India closely follows developments across the Indo-Pacific region,” he said, adding: “We have an abiding interest in peace and stability in the region, in view of our significant trade, economic, people-to-people, and maritime interests. We urge all concerned
In the past 72 hours, US Senators Roger Wicker, Dan Sullivan and Ruben Gallego took to social media to publicly rebuke the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) over the defense budget. I understand that Taiwan’s head is on the chopping block, and the urgency of its security situation cannot be overstated. However, the comments from Wicker, Sullivan and Gallego suggest they have fallen victim to a sophisticated disinformation campaign orchestrated by an administration in Taipei that treats national security as a partisan weapon. The narrative fed to our allies claims the opposition is slashing the defense budget to kowtow to the Chinese
RSS