As a new US president takes office, he faces a determined Chinese leadership that could be further emboldened by the US’ troubles at home.
The disarray in the US, from the rampant COVID-19 pandemic to the Jan. 6 riot at the Capitol, gives the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) a boost as it pursues its long-running quest for national “rejuvenation” — a bid to return the country to what it sees as its rightful place as a major nation.
For US President Joe Biden, sworn in on Wednesday as the 46th president, that could make one of his major foreign policy challenges even more difficult, as he tries to manage an increasingly contentious relationship between the world’s rising power and its established one.
Illustration: Kevin Sheu
The stakes are high for both countries and the rest of the world. A misstep could spark an accidental conflict in the Western Pacific, where China’s growing naval presence is bumping up against that of the US. The trade dispute under former US president Donald Trump hurt workers and farmers in both countries, although some in Vietnam and elsewhere benefited as companies moved production outside China.
On global issues such as climate, it is difficult to make progress if the world’s two largest economies are not talking.
The Chinese government on Thursday expressed hope that Biden would return to dialogue and cooperation after the divisiveness under Trump.
“It is normal for China and the United States to have some differences,” Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokeswoman Hua Chunying (華春瑩) said. “Countries with different social systems, cultural backgrounds and ideologies should and can coexist ... and work together to achieve peace and stability and development in the world.”
Kurt Tong, a former US diplomat in Asia, sees a stalemate in the coming years in which China keeps doing what it has been doing and the US is not happy about it.
“I think it’s going to be a tough patch, it’s just going to be more disagreements than agreements and not a lot of breakthroughs,” said Tong, now a partner with The Asia Group consultancy in Washington.
A more confident China might push back harder on issues such as technology, territory and human rights.
Analysts draw parallels to the 2008 global financial crisis, from which China emerged relatively unscathed. The country’s foreign policy has grown increasingly assertive since then, from staking out territory in disputed waters in the South China Sea to its use of Twitter to hit back at critics. China’s relative success in controlling the pandemic could fuel that trend.
The US has also shifted, with wide support among Republicans and Democrats for treating China as a competitor, and embracing the need for a tougher approach to China, if not always agreeing with how Trump carried it out.
Biden needs to be wary of opening himself up to attacks that he is soft on China if he rolls back import tariffs and other steps taken by his predecessor.
His pressing need to prioritize domestic challenges could give China breathing room to push forward its agenda, whether it be technological advancement or territorial issues from Taiwan to its border with India.
Biden has pointed to potential areas of cooperation, from climate change to curbing North Korea’s nuclear weapons development, but even in those areas, the two countries do not always agree.
The pandemic, first viewed as a potential threat to Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) leadership as it spiraled out of control in Wuhan early last year, has been transformed into a story of hardship followed by triumph.
The CCP has sought to use the pandemic to justify its continued control of the one-party, authoritarian state it has led for more than 70 years, while rounding up citizen journalists and others to quash any criticism of its handling of the outbreak.
That effort has been aided by the failure of many other nations to stop the spread of COVID-19. Biden takes over a country where deaths continue to mount and virus-related restrictions keep it in recession.
China is battling small outbreaks, but life has largely returned to normal and economic growth is accelerating.
“It would have been more difficult for them to push that narrative around the world if the United States had not done such a poor job,” said Bonnie Glaser, director of the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “That’s a theme that runs through many issues, that China’s just able to point to the United States and democracy in general as not delivering good governance.”
It is impossible to gauge support for the CCP in a country where many would be unwilling to criticize it publicly, for fear of repercussions.
Niu Jun (牛軍), an international relations professor at Peking University, said that objectively, public trust should rise given China’s faster recovery from the outbreak.
“To ordinary people, the logic is very simple,” he said, adding that the pandemic would spark public thinking and discussion about which system of governance is more effective.
“The party’s policies are good, our policies are not like the ones in foreign countries, ours are good,” said Liu Shixiu, strolling with her daughter in Wuhan, the city that bore the brunt of the pandemic in China. “We listen to the party.”
It is unclear whether the CCP foresees exporting its way of governance as an alternative to the democratic model. For now, Chinese officials say that countries choose different systems and stress the need for others to respect those differences.
“As China becomes more and more confident, maybe they’ll try to shape the internal operations or ways of thinking of other countries,” Tong said. “But to me, it feels more like they don’t want anyone to be able to say that China is bad and get away with it.”
The leadership wants China to be seen and treated as an equal and has shown a willingness to use its growing economic and military might to try to get its way.
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