The dogged opposition of Poland and Hungary to the EU’s budget and recovery package has turned into a dangerous standoff with nations in deep recession and dire need of help to cope with the COVID-19 pandemic.
Unless these two holdouts drop their veto on the deal within days, France warned of severe and potentially existential disruption to the 27-nation bloc still coping with Brexit.
The alarm came at a meeting of EU envoys in Brussels on Friday, when Polish and Hungarian ambassadors dug in. They object to the disbursement of 1.8 trillion euros (US$2.2 trillion) being tied to democratic standards they are accused of falling short of.
The European Commission’s representative said that if no breakthrough is reached by Monday next week, then the EU would have to operate via monthly emergency budgets as of the start of next year.
That would mean financial paralysis and the progressive suspension of all but essential spending.
“I reiterated that Poland is prepared to veto the new budget unless the solution that is good for the whole EU, and not just some of its members, is found,” Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki wrote on Facebook after speaking with German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
The defiant comments came as the French ambassador in the non-public meeting was warning that the quarrel could signal a “fundamental rupture,” which raises questions about the very future of the EU, according to two diplomats present in the conversation.
The spat over the strings attached to the pot of EU funds has degenerated into a game of chicken between two ideologically committed sides.
It points to a growing divide between the wealthier west and some nations in the formerly communist east that were meant to find common cause under one European identity, but instead are at odds over the nature of democracy.
The nationalist government of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has been pushing the EU’s button for a decade in his defiance of the fundamental EU principle of the rule of law.
At one time he was dismissed as a lone troublemaker on the EU’s periphery, but he has won over a number of eastern allies.
He is tag-teaming with Poland, the biggest and most populous nation in eastern Europe, casting doubt over their future in the bloc even as their economies have relied on billions of euros in handouts over the years.
They see any link of money to rule-of-law standards as an infringement on their sovereignty.
Both are subject to probes over democratic backsliding, making them prime candidates for cuts to funding that could top a combined 180 billion euros in the coming years.
So in theory, they have an incentive to back down, if not in the immediate short term.
To unlock the funds, one of three things must happen: Someone backs down; an 11th-hour compromise is struck; or the two holdouts are bypassed.
France was among those who floated the idea of launching the 750 billion euro stimulus package, which is separate from the EU’s regular budget, via an intergovernmental agreement that would get around a veto.
During the discussion, none of the bloc’s other ambassadors voiced any support for the position of Budapest and Warsaw or a willingness to change the mechanism, which was agreed after difficult negotiations with European lawmakers.
Germany, which holds the rotating presidency of the EU, told the envoys that there has been no progress so far in the talks.
Rich countries, such as the Netherlands and Finland, which are net contributors to the EU’s budget and lend their stellar credit rating to the bloc in order to raise jointly backed debt in capital markets, say the rule-of-law provision is a basic requirement.
Still, some officials remain confident that a compromise is the likeliest scenario and that the current situation is a game of who will blink first.
When it comes down to it, there will be flexibility on both sides given how much is at stake, according to a person in Merkel’s coalition familiar with the discussions, who also said the chancellor is personally involved in trying to solve the standoff.
While the remaining EU countries have made it clear that a possible compromise would not change the substance of the rule-of-law mechanism, officials are looking into other ways to give Hungary and Poland an honorable way to back down from a position deemed to be untenable.
Two EU officials view the situation as serious and as a major topic in next month’s summit. They are also reading the political tea leaves and see Orban seeking to drag things out so that any outcome only comes into force after 2022 parliamentary elections.
Merkel and her negotiating skills as a veteran leader are seen as key, the officials say, even as she will be serving out her final term as chancellor.
Recently, China launched another diplomatic offensive against Taiwan, improperly linking its “one China principle” with UN General Assembly Resolution 2758 to constrain Taiwan’s diplomatic space. After Taiwan’s presidential election on Jan. 13, China persuaded Nauru to sever diplomatic ties with Taiwan. Nauru cited Resolution 2758 in its declaration of the diplomatic break. Subsequently, during the WHO Executive Board meeting that month, Beijing rallied countries including Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Belarus, Egypt, Nicaragua, Sri Lanka, Laos, Russia, Syria and Pakistan to reiterate the “one China principle” in their statements, and assert that “Resolution 2758 has settled the status of Taiwan” to hinder Taiwan’s
Can US dialogue and cooperation with the communist dictatorship in Beijing help avert a Taiwan Strait crisis? Or is US President Joe Biden playing into Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) hands? With America preoccupied with the wars in Europe and the Middle East, Biden is seeking better relations with Xi’s regime. The goal is to responsibly manage US-China competition and prevent unintended conflict, thereby hoping to create greater space for the two countries to work together in areas where their interests align. The existing wars have already stretched US military resources thin, and the last thing Biden wants is yet another war.
As Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu’s party won by a landslide in Sunday’s parliamentary election, it is a good time to take another look at recent developments in the Maldivian foreign policy. While Muizzu has been promoting his “Maldives First” policy, the agenda seems to have lost sight of a number of factors. Contemporary Maldivian policy serves as a stark illustration of how a blend of missteps in public posturing, populist agendas and inattentive leadership can lead to diplomatic setbacks and damage a country’s long-term foreign policy priorities. Over the past few months, Maldivian foreign policy has entangled itself in playing
A group of Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) lawmakers led by the party’s legislative caucus whip Fu Kun-chi (?) are to visit Beijing for four days this week, but some have questioned the timing and purpose of the visit, which demonstrates the KMT caucus’ increasing arrogance. Fu on Wednesday last week confirmed that following an invitation by Beijing, he would lead a group of lawmakers to China from Thursday to Sunday to discuss tourism and agricultural exports, but he refused to say whether they would meet with Chinese officials. That the visit is taking place during the legislative session and in the aftermath