As Asia comes to terms with the reality of US president-elect Joe Biden taking over the White House, relief and hopes of economic and environmental revival jostle with needling anxiety and fears of inattention.
From security to trade to climate change, a powerful US reach extends to nearly every corner of the Asia-Pacific region. In his four years in office, US President Donald Trump shook the foundations of US relations with Asian nations as he courted traditional rivals and attacked allies with frequency and relish.
Now, as Biden looks to settle tumultuous domestic issues, there is widespread worry that Asia might end up as an afterthought. Allies might go untended. Rivals, and especially China, that immense US competitor for regional supremacy, might do as it likes.
In the wake of perhaps the most contentious presidency in recent US history, here is a look at how its aftermath might play out in one of the world’s most important and volatile regions.
CHINA
Biden will likely look there first. The two nations are inexorably entwined, economically and politically, even as the US military presence in the Pacific chafes against China’s expanded effort to have its way in what it sees as its natural sphere of influence.
Under Trump, the two rivals engaged in a trade dispute and a lively exchange of verbal hostilities.
A Biden administration could have a calming effect on those frayed ties, said Alexander Huang (黃介正), a strategic studies professor at Tamkang University in New Taipei City and a former Taiwan national security official.
“I’d expect Biden to return to the more moderate, less confrontational approach of the [former US president Barack] Obama era toward China-US relations,” he said.
Greater outreach to China could prompt Washington to play down its support for Taiwan, without necessarily reducing US commitment to ensure that the nation can defend itself against Chinese threats, Huang said.
Retired chemical engineer Tang Ruiguo echoed a view shared by many in China of an unstoppable decline of the US from its global superpower status.
“No matter who is elected, I feel the US may go into turmoil and unrest and its development will be affected,” Tang said.
THE KOREAS
Say goodbye to the summits. Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un went from threats of war to three unprecedented meetings, which, although high-profile media events, did nothing to rid the North of its banned nuclear-tipped long-range missiles.
Kim must now adjust to a man his propaganda services once condemned as a “rabid dog” that “must be beaten to death.”
Biden, for his part, has called Kim a “butcher” and “thug,” and said that Trump has gifted a dictator with legitimacy and “three made-for-TV summits” that produced no disarmament progress.
Biden has endorsed a slower approach built from working-level meetings and said that he would be willing to tighten sanctions on Pyongyang until it takes concrete denuclearization steps.
North Korea, which has yet to show any willingness to fully deal away a nuclear arsenal that Kim might see as his strongest guarantee of survival, prefers a summit-driven process that gives it a better chance of pocketing instant concessions that would otherwise be rejected by lower-level diplomats.
For South Korea, the new US president would likely demonstrate more respect toward its treaty ally than Trump, who unilaterally downsized joint military training and constantly complained about the cost of the 28,500 US troops stationed in the South to defend against North Korea.
JAPAN
The resignation this year of former Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe ended one of Trump’s few close, productive relationships with a foreign leader.
There is hope in Tokyo that Biden’s more progressive ecological policies would help Japanese green companies and that he would take a hard line on China, with which Japan is in constant competition.
However, there is also worry.
The US under Biden “cannot afford to take care of other countries, and it has to prioritize its own reconstruction,” said Hiro Aida, a professor at Kansai University.
As Biden is consumed with his nation’s many domestic troubles, from racial unrest to worries about the economy, healthcare and COVID-19, Japan could be left alone as China pursues its territorial ambitions and North Korea expands its nuclear efforts, said Peter Tasker, a Tokyo-based analyst at Arcus Research.
AUSTRALIA, NEW ZEALAND
Former Australian prime minister Malcolm Turnbull, who was in office when Trump was elected, might have spoken for many when he tweeted congratulations to Biden, saying: “What a relief that you won.”
There is hope that Biden would do better than the Trump administration, which in 2018 granted Australian manufacturers exemptions from US steel and aluminum tariffs before reportedly having a change of heart a year later.
For New Zealand, there are aspirations to sell more milk and beef under a US administration that is more open to free trade.
New Zealand and other Pacific nations also hope that Biden might help ease tensions with China.
New Zealand has found itself stuck between the two superpowers, relying on China as its biggest trading partner while maintaining traditional defense and intelligence ties with the US.
INDIA
Not much is expected change with the host of security and defense ties shared by India and the US.
However, a Biden administration could mean a much closer look at India’s spotty human rights and religious freedom records, which were largely ignored by Trump.
Biden is also expected to be more critical of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu-nationalistic policies, which critics say oppress India’s minorities, said Michael Kugelman, a South Asia analyst at the Wilson Center think tank.
The countries would work more closely to counterbalance China, a shared rival, Kugelman said.
A Biden White House would not “risk antagonizing a country that is widely viewed in Washington as America’s best strategic bet in South Asia,” he said.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
Some countries in the region, such as Malaysia, have pivoted toward China because of heavy investment and a focus on economic recovery, and “it will take time for the US to rebuild trust,” said Bridget Welsh, a research associate at the University of Nottingham in Malaysia. “US power will never be what it was.”
Biden is also likely to be more wary in his dealings with strongman leaders like Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, Thai Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha and Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen, said Richard Heydarian, a Manila-based analyst.
“A more cautious Biden could also mean a degree of stability in relations with tricky allies and partners in Southeast Asia and the region,” Heydarian said. “We are going to see American leadership, but much more in conjunction with regional players and powers, including Japan, Australia, India, European powers” and Southeast Asia.
On May 7, 1971, Henry Kissinger planned his first, ultra-secret mission to China and pondered whether it would be better to meet his Chinese interlocutors “in Pakistan where the Pakistanis would tape the meeting — or in China where the Chinese would do the taping.” After a flicker of thought, he decided to have the Chinese do all the tape recording, translating and transcribing. Fortuitously, historians have several thousand pages of verbatim texts of Dr. Kissinger’s negotiations with his Chinese counterparts. Paradoxically, behind the scenes, Chinese stenographers prepared verbatim English language typescripts faster than they could translate and type them
More than 30 years ago when I immigrated to the US, applied for citizenship and took the 100-question civics test, the one part of the naturalization process that left the deepest impression on me was one question on the N-400 form, which asked: “Have you ever been a member of, involved in or in any way associated with any communist or totalitarian party anywhere in the world?” Answering “yes” could lead to the rejection of your application. Some people might try their luck and lie, but if exposed, the consequences could be much worse — a person could be fined,
Xiaomi Corp founder Lei Jun (雷軍) on May 22 made a high-profile announcement, giving online viewers a sneak peek at the company’s first 3-nanometer mobile processor — the Xring O1 chip — and saying it is a breakthrough in China’s chip design history. Although Xiaomi might be capable of designing chips, it lacks the ability to manufacture them. No matter how beautifully planned the blueprints are, if they cannot be mass-produced, they are nothing more than drawings on paper. The truth is that China’s chipmaking efforts are still heavily reliant on the free world — particularly on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing
On May 13, the Legislative Yuan passed an amendment to Article 6 of the Nuclear Reactor Facilities Regulation Act (核子反應器設施管制法) that would extend the life of nuclear reactors from 40 to 60 years, thereby providing a legal basis for the extension or reactivation of nuclear power plants. On May 20, Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) legislators used their numerical advantage to pass the TPP caucus’ proposal for a public referendum that would determine whether the Ma-anshan Nuclear Power Plant should resume operations, provided it is deemed safe by the authorities. The Central Election Commission (CEC) has