China is becoming increasingly and more blatantly audacious in its quest for global dominance. Its biggest obstacle is the US, while one stepping stone is the fall of Taiwan.
China observers have long divested themselves of belief in Beijing’s initial claims that the expansion of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) was aimed at creating a predominantly defensive force. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been open and consistent about its intention to annex Taiwan, whether by peaceful means or military invasion.
The PLA has been developing amphibious forces that would not only enable it to capture contested territories in the South China and the East China seas, but also to invade Taiwan. This would be done to consolidate its grip on the region, and allow it to control the first island chain.
It is evident to military analysts that this would allow China to extend its military reach globally and protect its interests overseas.
Under Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平), the CCP has been far more willing to push its agenda and act more aggressively on the international stage. This process has intensified over the past few months, with the party’s hard line on its own role in allowing the COVID-19 outbreak to get out of hand, on freedoms in Hong Kong with the introduction of national security legislation for the territory, on the increasing “gray zone conflict” hybrid warfare approach against Taiwan and on the emerging trend of more assertive “wolf-warrior diplomacy.”
International concerns over Beijing’s bullying have been added to concerns about the construction of concentration camps to “re-educate” Uighurs and other muslim minorities in Xinjiang and China’s military build-up in the South China Sea.
The international community is rapidly recalibrating its expectations of how much it can trust China, and how much it should regard it as a serious challenge.
While past US administrations have preferred a position of engagement with China and “strategic ambiguity” regarding Taiwan, US President Donald Trump has been more willing to confront China. It remains to be seen which direction former US vice president Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic presidential candidate, will take should he defeat Trump in November.
Yet even Biden, previously very open to engagement with the CCP, has hardened his rhetoric. Whoever wins, the next administration will need to change tack if it wants to contain the CCP’s dreams of global dominance.
For Taiwan, a most welcome development has been the announcement by US Representative Ted Yoho of a planned “Taiwan Invasion Prevention Act.” The very title of the bill would send a very clear message not only to Xi and the CCP, but to the rest of the international community of the US’ seriousness in defending Taiwan against Chinese military aggression.
During an interview with a US cable channel on May 29, Yoho called on other Western democracies to join the US in shoring up the defense of Taiwan.
“If we don’t do it today, is it going to be possible to do it in two or three years from now, when China has a stronger economy and stronger military?” he said.
Taiwan needs its friends in the West, and in neighboring countries to make clear to the CCP, through legislation and dialogue between senior national security officials and their Chinese counterparts, where the line needs to be drawn.
Time is increasingly on the CCP’s side.
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