China is becoming increasingly and more blatantly audacious in its quest for global dominance. Its biggest obstacle is the US, while one stepping stone is the fall of Taiwan.
China observers have long divested themselves of belief in Beijing’s initial claims that the expansion of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) was aimed at creating a predominantly defensive force. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been open and consistent about its intention to annex Taiwan, whether by peaceful means or military invasion.
The PLA has been developing amphibious forces that would not only enable it to capture contested territories in the South China and the East China seas, but also to invade Taiwan. This would be done to consolidate its grip on the region, and allow it to control the first island chain.
It is evident to military analysts that this would allow China to extend its military reach globally and protect its interests overseas.
Under Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平), the CCP has been far more willing to push its agenda and act more aggressively on the international stage. This process has intensified over the past few months, with the party’s hard line on its own role in allowing the COVID-19 outbreak to get out of hand, on freedoms in Hong Kong with the introduction of national security legislation for the territory, on the increasing “gray zone conflict” hybrid warfare approach against Taiwan and on the emerging trend of more assertive “wolf-warrior diplomacy.”
International concerns over Beijing’s bullying have been added to concerns about the construction of concentration camps to “re-educate” Uighurs and other muslim minorities in Xinjiang and China’s military build-up in the South China Sea.
The international community is rapidly recalibrating its expectations of how much it can trust China, and how much it should regard it as a serious challenge.
While past US administrations have preferred a position of engagement with China and “strategic ambiguity” regarding Taiwan, US President Donald Trump has been more willing to confront China. It remains to be seen which direction former US vice president Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic presidential candidate, will take should he defeat Trump in November.
Yet even Biden, previously very open to engagement with the CCP, has hardened his rhetoric. Whoever wins, the next administration will need to change tack if it wants to contain the CCP’s dreams of global dominance.
For Taiwan, a most welcome development has been the announcement by US Representative Ted Yoho of a planned “Taiwan Invasion Prevention Act.” The very title of the bill would send a very clear message not only to Xi and the CCP, but to the rest of the international community of the US’ seriousness in defending Taiwan against Chinese military aggression.
During an interview with a US cable channel on May 29, Yoho called on other Western democracies to join the US in shoring up the defense of Taiwan.
“If we don’t do it today, is it going to be possible to do it in two or three years from now, when China has a stronger economy and stronger military?” he said.
Taiwan needs its friends in the West, and in neighboring countries to make clear to the CCP, through legislation and dialogue between senior national security officials and their Chinese counterparts, where the line needs to be drawn.
Time is increasingly on the CCP’s side.
The first Donald Trump term was a boon for Taiwan. The administration regularized the arms sales process and enhanced bilateral ties. Taipei will not be so fortunate the second time around. Given recent events, Taiwan must proceed with the assumption that it cannot count on the United States to defend it — diplomatically or militarily — during the next four years. Early indications suggested otherwise. The nomination of Marco Rubio as US Secretary of State and the appointment of Mike Waltz as the national security advisor, both of whom have expressed full-throated support for Taiwan in the past, raised hopes that
There is nothing the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) could do to stop the tsunami-like mass recall campaign. KMT Chairman Eric Chu (朱立倫) reportedly said the party does not exclude the option of conditionally proposing a no-confidence vote against the premier, which the party later denied. Did an “actuary” like Chu finally come around to thinking it should get tough with the ruling party? The KMT says the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is leading a minority government with only a 40 percent share of the vote. It has said that the DPP is out of touch with the electorate, has proposed a bloated
Authorities last week revoked the residency permit of a Chinese social media influencer surnamed Liu (劉), better known by her online channel name Yaya in Taiwan (亞亞在台灣), who has more than 440,000 followers online and is living in Taiwan with a marriage-based residency permit, for her “reunification by force” comments. She was asked to leave the country in 10 days. The National Immigration Agency (NIA) on Tuesday last week announced the decision, citing the influencer’s several controversial public comments, including saying that “China does not need any other reason to reunify Taiwan with force” and “why is it [China] hesitant
A media report has suggested that Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairman Eric Chu (朱立倫) was considering initiating a vote of no confidence in Premier Cho Jung-tai (卓榮泰) in a bid to “bring down the Cabinet.” The KMT has denied that this topic was ever discussed. Why might such a move have even be considered? It would have been absurd if it had seen the light of day — potentially leading to a mass loss of legislative seats for the KMT even without the recall petitions already under way. Today the second phase of the recall movement is to begin — which has
RSS