Fri, Sep 02, 2016 page8

• Hundred days of accomplishments

  • By Huang Tien-lin 黃天麟
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  Several opinion polls on the performance of President Tsai Ing-wen’s (蔡英文) administration’s in its first 100 days in office were released last month. Pro-China media outlets and academics, acting as if they had been given a gift from the gods, published numerous articles covering the government’s “poor performance” and exaggerating the impact on the economy of the shrinking number of Chinese tourists to Taiwan. Such coverage only noted the details, but ignored the overall picture.

  The Tsai administration did make progress in its first 100 days in office — with some efforts surpassing what former president Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) achieved during his eight years in office.

  First, the TAIEX stood at 8,095.98 points on May 19, the day before Tsai’s inauguration. As of Friday last week, it had risen by 1,035.74 points to 9,131.72, boosting the market’s value by about NT$3 trillion (about US$94.6 billion), or an average increase of about NT$130,000 for each Taiwanese. With the index rising 12.8 percent during the period, Taiwan was the top performing market in Asia.

  Ironically, during Ma’s eight years in office, the TAIEX fell from 9,295.2 points to 8,095.98 points, down 1,199 points, or 12.9 percent. The weighted index’s fall during Ma’s presidency was almost identical to the increase during the first 100 days of Tsai’s presidency. What a coincidence.

  Next, the stock market is a window on the economy, there must be some reason behind the rise in local shares, such as increased public confidence and an improved investment environment. The nation’s economy went into a steady decline during Ma’s eight years, including an embarrassing minus-0.29 percent in the first quarter of this year.

  However, the economy has since gradually stabilized, and concern over further declines has eased after GDP grew 0.7 percent year-on-year in the second quarter — a figure that might not be satisfactory, but is acceptable.

  Meanwhile, Ma’s policy of “integrating Taiwan into China” has been restrained since the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) gained control of the Legislative Yuan in the January elections. This was one of the key factors behind the stabilization of the Taiwanese economy in the second quarter.

  Furthermore, the index of leading indicators has risen for five straight months and finally flashed “green” in July. This indicates that the public has gradually regained confidence thanks to the DPP’s control of the legislature, while cross-strait relations have entered a period of “cold peace.” The former administration’s policy of integrating Taiwan into China has been frustrated, and both the public and the government have returned to a Taiwan-centric focus.

  Finally, exports have stopped falling, rising 1.2 percent year-on-year in July and ending 17 consecutive months of declines since February last year. Among Taiwan’s main export markets, shipments to Japan increased the most, by 10.2 percent, while exports to ASEAN countries climbed 4.5 percent. Exports to China increased by a mere 2.4 percent, indicating progress in market diversification strategies.

  Judging from the increase in exports, improvement in leading economic indicators, turnaround in GDP growth and the TAIEX’s 1,035-point jump, it seems as if the nation’s ailing economy has been recovering during the first 100 days of Tsai’s presidency.

  Perhaps such a change can be called “cold peace prosperity” and the momentum in the stock market can be called “cold peace momentum,” because they are the product of the “cold peace” in cross-strait relations, because of Tsai’s refusal to endorse the so-called “1992 consensus.”

  These consequences may have been unintentional, but it is a fact that Taiwanese officials are no longer distracted by cross-strait affairs and that the public has been put at ease and is paying greater attention to Taiwan.

  The drop in the Tsai administration’s approval ratings is a product of some people being misled by pro-China media outlets and academics, public discontent with non-DPP members dominating the Cabinet, as well as fears that Ma’s policy of integrating Taiwan into China might stage a comeback. These are issues that Tsai has to face with caution, and they are key to whether the current cold peace prosperity will continue.

  Huang Tien-lin is a former national policy adviser to the president.

  Translated by Eddy Chang
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