The news flowing out of the Korean peninsula lately has been almost euphoric. Even so, a dollop of skepticism about its ultimate effect seems to be in order.
In Seoul, South Korean President Lee Myung-bak delivered an animated inaugural address, saying: "We must move from the age of ideology into the age of pragmatism."
The new president seemed to distance himself from the leftist ideology of his predecessor, Roh Moo Hyun, but on the critical issue of relations with the US, he said only he would "strengthen our strategic alliance with the United States."
In Pyongyang, the New York Philharmonic gave a rousing concert featuring Dvorak's Ninth or New World Symphony, which celebrates America's melting pot, and the haunting Arirang, a Korean folk song lamenting the trials of a jilted lover crossing a mountain pass. North Korea's leader, Kim Jong-il, however, did not attend, sending an unmistakable signal that the orchestra's good will meant little.
In security posture, South Korea is at a crossroads, although few Korean peninsula leaders appear ready to confront this issue. Conversations with North and South Korean officials, scholars, politicians, and military officers suggested they have underestimated the dissatisfaction among Americans who have long dealt with the Korean peninsula.
In particular, former president Roh's policy toward North Korea's plans for acquiring nuclear arms has bordered on appeasement in the eyes of some in the US. In contrast, US President George W. Bush's administration has demanded that North Korea abandon its nuclear program in return for normal economic and diplomatic relations. Moreover, South Korea has been cultivating relations with China even though China has a history of dominating the Korean peninsula, which has aroused US suspicion about China's intentions. At the same time, South Koreans have nurtured a hatred for Japan, a US ally today, rooted in 35 years of Japanese colonial rule that ended in 1945.
After President Lee won election in December, South Korean and US pundits have speculated that he would try to restore the good relations South Korea experienced with the US after the Korean War of 1950 to 1953. Lee himself, however, has said little about this. He told foreign correspondents in Seoul in January that South Korea's alliance with the US "is going to be creatively revamped."
Then came the inaugural address devoted largely to domestic matters, the president saying only that he would "Strengthen traditional friendly relations with the United States into a future-oriented partnership."
He lacked specifics but perhaps has something in mind for a Washington visit scheduled for April.
South Korean military leaders have been urging the US to slow a steady decline in US forces posted in South Korea. Barring an unexpected turn-around, however, that trend appears to be set because US senior officers say those troops are needed elsewhere, such as Iraq, and South Korea can defend itself.
The commanding officer of US forces in the Korean peninsula, General Burwell Bell was quoted in the Wall Street Journal as saying that even though North Korea's forces are deployed in a "threatening posture," their weapons and equipment are old and their training is poor. The Russians and Chinese have stopped supplying them, Bell said, and the North Korean army's capabilities have deteriorated in recent years.
In contrast, Bell was quoted as saying the South Korean army is world class.
He said: "Proclaim loudly and clearly that the capacities of the [South] Korean forces are second to none on the globe, and it would not be wise for the North Koreans to test that."
Kim Jong-il's absence from the New York Philharmonic concert did not cause much comment, possibly because the American music and culture critics accompanying the orchestra were not familiar with the Stalinesque ways of Pyongyang. Surely no North Korean missed the point, which was that Kim did not see the visit as any breakthrough in his regime's relations with the US.
US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, did not miss the point. She was quoted in the New York Times as saying: "The North Korean regime is still the North Korean regime, so I don't think we should get carried away with what listening to Dvorak is going to do in North Korea."
Nor were some members of the orchestra taken in. Dawn Hannay, a violist, told the Times she doubted the visit would be effective, despite the efforts of North Koreans to shine a favorable light on it. There are a lot of us, she said, "who are not buying into this party line that music transcends the political and we are opening up North Korea with a single concert."
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