POLITICIANS IN TAIWAN have been working hard for months on the elections to be held on Saturday and in March. In the US, people are also hard at work, even though final elections won't be held for almost a year.
Last week, we saw the first of several state caucuses in the US. The result was very much a surprise and may be of interest to Taiwanese voters.
It was clear that voters of both major parties in Iowa wanted a new direction in government. This clear message was demonstrated by the highest turnout of voters the state has ever had for the primaries (239,000 versus 124,000 in 2004). People seemed to have chosen the candidates who were perceived to be the most removed from the establishment.
There are many caucuses to come before candidates in the two parties gain enough delegates to the convention to determine who will run in the general election, but historically the primary candidates who win the first few primaries usually become nominees for president.
Senator Barack Obama, who is seen as anti-establishment, was decisively chosen by Iowa Democratic voters over insiders Senator Hillary Clinton and John Edwards.
Republican Mike Huckabee, also seen as anti-establishment, also won by 10 points above expected winner Mitt Romney -- also a big surprise.
Huckabee's support from the Republican Party, however, has not been as strong as Obama's support from the Democratic party, and he does not have the financial support that other candidates have. His support has been mainly grassroots religious and social conservatives.
Early last year, the strongest issue for the candidates of both parties was the war in Iraq.
Most of them talked about the problems of the war and the harm it was doing the country.
The war is still in the news, but not as prominently as it was in the past.
Also big issues -- as always when a country is preparing for elections -- are the economy, the reduction in the US standard of living, higher prices and longer work hours, which are certainly in need of attention. Despite leading economic indicators showing the US economy is stable, people are still anxious about the future.
This is also the case in Taiwan. The economy is doing well, but it is also in need of attention, and voters will undoubtedly be mindful of the economic situation when they decide who to vote for.
Still, there are differences between the US and Taiwan elections. Two centuries of US elections pose a major difference. There are countless times elections have taken place in which the bulk of the voters did not support any of the contenders. Other parties were often included, but the elections usually passed without a winning third party candidate.
A third party candidate may yet emerge for this year's US elections. This could be the case with New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, the only possible candidate who has the funds to compete.
Taiwan may be similar. There are some groups thinking of a middle party, the most obvious being the support base of former president Lee Teng-hui (
Following the legislative elections, it is possible that a group might pursue adding a third party to the presidential election. It would be very difficult given the short period before the election in March, but like the caucus in Iowa this last week, voters unwilling to give their votes to either the DPP or the KMT might welcome an alternative.
One other phenomenon stands out after the Iowa caucuses -- the speed in which a new candidate can be changed into a winner.
In a relatively short period of time (less than a month before the election in Iowa), Obama captured support from both young and old who felt the need to focus on a new government.
He overcame a leader of the establishment -- Clinton. She held the support of the unions, the party leaders and the various organizations that make up the traditional Democratic base, but Obama overcame that advantage with a grassroots organization based on anti-war protesters and everyday voters disaffected by their standards of living.
On the Republican side, it seems Rudy Giuliani and Romney held the traditional Republican pro-business base, but Huckabee saw and captured the vacuum of voters among the social conservatives, using it to build a grassroots base that defeated the establishment.
Taiwan has many voters who, according to the media -- are dissatisfied with the establishment, and do not seem to know where or if they should give their vote in the days ahead. Could this develop an anti-establishment voter base?
Nat Bellocchi is a former chairman of the American Institute in Taiwan and is now a special adviser to the Liberty Times Group. The views expressed in this article are his own.
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