Despite being a figure of ridicule for many political observers in Taiwan, it would be foolish of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) to look beyond Vice President Annette Lu (
Lu is one of only four big names in the party who stand a realistic chance of winning the DPP ticket and indeed the election, along with Premier Su Tseng-chang (
Among her rivals, Su undoubtedly poses the biggest threat to Lu. He is the party's great hope and a favorite for many as he boasts a solid record of achievement during his time as commissioner of both Pingtung and Taipei counties. He has also done a competent job since becoming premier in January, maintaining a low profile in keeping with his get-the-job-done style. But Su's premiership has coincided with a period of unprecedented legislative deadlock, and things do not look as if they will get much better anytime soon.
In addition, the pan-blue camp is obviously aware of Su's threat and will try everything within its power in the meantime to attack him and tarnish his reputation. Pan-blue lawmakers already attempted this once, asking Su to step down in keeping with his promise in March to resign if the crime rate did not fall in six months. Even though Su has done his best to remain above the current bout of political squabbling, it is obvious that some are looking to harm his reputation: The recent attempts to topple the Cabinet could be construed as an effort to discredit Su.
Yu is another strong contender for the presidential ticket, and his two-year term as DPP chairman will end at just the right time. Yu has good experience in a variety of important roles, most notably as premier between 2002 and last year and during two terms as Ilan County commissioner, where he was extremely popular and by all accounts did a great job. While he also performed adequately during a difficult spell as premier, his reputation as an achiever took a blow. On the negative side, Yu is probably too independence-minded for many of Taiwan's electorate, and this could count against him if he were to stand in a national vote.
Former premier and Kao-hsiung mayor Hsieh is possibly the weakest potential rival. His performance in his short tenure as premier left a lot to be desired as his "reconciliation" Cabinet failed to produce any results of note. While he did a decent job as mayor of Kaohsiung, his reputation remains tainted by corruption relating to the construction of the city's mass rapid transit system. Although there is no evidence to suggest he was personally involved in any wrongdoing and he has not been indicted, one cannot discount the fact that it happened under his watch.
Another factor may be that Hsieh could already be Taipei mayor by then, because now that People First Party Chairman James Soong (
That leaves Lu as the one high-profile government figure that has escaped with her reputation unscathed during the last six years of DPP administration. Even though she holds a relatively important position, she remains out of the opposition's firing line.
Of the main criticisms leveled at Lu, one is her habit of proposing odd-sounding initiatives. But judging other politicians in the country using the same standards, then Lu's schemes are pretty much par for the course. This year alone we have seen Hsieh's Olympic Taipei 2020 proposal, President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) suggesting Taiwan send young soccer players to Brazil for training, and while Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairman Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) may think his cross-strait modus vivendi is a recipe for success, many consider it to be nothing more than "pie-in-the-sky."
Lu's reputation results from her tendency, unlike other politicians, to speak her mind and unfair treatment in the press, especially as her more successful initiatives, such as the Democratic Pacific Union and the Presidential Office's Human Rights Advisory Committee, are either largely ignored or attacked by opposition politicians.
Of course, it can be assumed that a Lu presidency would not result in more harmonious cross-strait relations as she is reviled by Beijing. Still, it is unlikely that things will improve whoever wins in 2008, unless they are willing to sacrifice Taiwan's sovereignty, something the electorate will not accept.
The vice president has also come in for a lot of criticism for "undermining the president," especially during Chen's first term. Taking a political "back seat" after such a long career at the forefront of events must have been tough for her. However, since then she has come to accept her role, and this has been far less of a problem during her second term of office.
Despite her critics, the vice president has a lot of outstanding personal traits that people tend to overlook when making fun of her. Unlike her rivals, Lu has a wealth of qualities that appeal to voters across party lines.
First, in the light of recent political developments, Lu is cleaner than clean. While almost every politician seems to be busy making money from dubious sources, Lu has never been accused of malfeasance or graft at any time during her political career. This would stand her in good stead in the current political climate.
Second, although much-maligned, people tend to overlook her achievements: Anyone who can win Taoyuan County twice for the DPP deserves to be taken seriously.
Third, she is a resilient and remarkably tough character who has survived endless personal attacks during the martial law era because of her pioneering work for sexual equality, human rights and the dangwai movement, for which she earned international recognition.
Another point in Lu's favor is her gender, the importance of which should not be downplayed as female heads of state are becoming more common around the world. Lu has been a tireless worker for women's rights for several decades and it is thanks to the efforts of people like her that Taiwan is one of the most forward-thinking places in Asia when it comes to sexual equality.
A female presidential candidate could act as an inspiration for educated women, of which Taiwan has many, and could prove to be a big vote winner. Women who have previously steered clear of Taiwan's partisan politicking may be willing to vote for a female candidate.
One further factor that is always regarded as important for voters in Taiwan is a candidate's education and her ability to represent the nation internationally. Lu also scores highly in this category, as she is a Harvard graduate and speaks fluent English -- something she has in common with the KMT's probable pick for 2008, Ma.
In addition to her personal attributes, Lu has the green credentials that if chosen, would earn her the unwavering support of pan-green supporters. Lu was an active member of the opposition movement during Taiwan's transition to democracy and spent over five years in prison for her part in the Kaohsiung Incident. As a former political prisoner, she understands Taiwan's unique situation and has set an example for others by being able to forgive those who imprisoned her.
Moreover, by 2008 Lu may have already have gained vital experience because if the president is forced to step down early in connection with the first lady's corruption trial, then Lu will take over. This would give her an ideal chance to prove what a good president she would make.
On top of all this, Lu is one of the few politicians that has shown an ability to transcend Taiwan's bitter party rivalries -- a vital skill if the nation is to move on from the legislative deadlock and animosity of the last six years -- commanding respect from fellow politicians.
She would present more than a match for any candidate the pan-blue camp can muster, and this is why the DPP should choose Lu as their candidate for president in 2008.
Richard Hazeldine is a writer based in Taipei.
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