Fri, May 03, 2002 page12

• Bush takes Asian security initiative

  • By Arthur Ding 丁樹範
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  Chinese President Jiang Zemin's (江澤民) likely successor, Hu Jintao (胡錦濤), began his "introductory" visit to the US on April 27. He has met with all major national security policymakers, including President George W. Bush, Vice President Dick Cheney, Secretary of State Colin Powell, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld and National Security Advisor Condolezza Rice.

  The international situation since Bush became president has brought little benefit to China, so most commentators expect Bei-jing to gain little from Hu's visit.

  The military relationship between the US and Taiwan, including military exchanges and ever closer cooperation, has improved significantly since former president Bill Clinton and his administration laid some solid foundations. The US allowed Minister of National Defense Tang Yao-ming (唐曜明) to visit Florida in March to attend a conference and it is also supporting Taiwan's bid to join the WHO.

  In terms of global deployments, Washington has poured soldiers into Central, South and Southeast Asia following the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks on the US. In the Asia-Pacific region, the US has restored its military installations on Guam and increased its deployment of offensive weapons platforms.

  The Bush administration has a standard script when asked about the current status of the US-China relationship. It says that the relationship is a complex one and that it cannot be interpreted in terms of friendship or enmity, as it is not a zero-sum relationship. The US does not see China as its enemy and calling China a threat, real or potential, to the US, may therefore easily lead to misunderstandings. The US and China should develop common areas of interest. The problem is how the US can be both tough and generous in its dealings with China.

  Nevertheless, as Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff General Richard Myers pointed out in the Philippines, the US recognizes that China is growing increasingly powerful in the Asia-Pacific region and that the US needs to respond to this. China has been doing all it can to avoid casting itself as a country which is about to displace the US as the dominant power in Asia. It would not bode well if, while China tried to avoid painting itself as the new dominant power, the US treated it as an enemy.

  It is therefore necessary for the US to help to integrate China into the international system, even as it warns Beijing against seeking to misuse its new power. The best way to assist China with its integration into the international system would be to continue to facilitate its absorption into the WTO and to encourage its legal system to expand into new areas through contacts with the international community. The Bush administration could also strengthen US-China trade and economic interaction. The recent inauguration of a US-China Federation of Commerce and Trade (美中商貿聯合會) by US Secretary of Commerce Donald Evans and China's Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation is another step in the right direction.

  Apart from this, Washington is trying to create mechanisms for cooperation to avoid creating a feeling that China is being circumscribed by the US. This should provide China with an emotional vent, while cooperation may help to resolve issues that might otherwise lead to

  confrontation.

  From another perspective, the US may use its strengthened military relationship with Taiwan to show its determination by making stepped up deployments in the Pacific region. This would deter China from causing disturbances and avoid any confusion on its part about US strategic intentions and determination, while also raising the cost of any Chinese military action against Taiwan.

  In particular, the Bush administration is worried by China's increasing missile deployments in its southeastern coastal areas and the increasing scale of its military exercises.

  How should we describe these US policies? To a certain extent, they are policies of engagement designed to bolster military security, even though the Bush administration balks at the use of such Clintonian terminology. The Clinton administration certainly didn't believe that its engagement policies were cowardly, since in March 1996, Clinton dispatched two aircraft carriers to the vicinity of the Taiwan Strait.

  If there are any differences between the Bush and Clinton administrations, they mainly lie in the Bush administration's emphasis on taking the initiative in the triangular US-China-Taiwan relationship and in setting the Asia-Pacific security agenda, instead of allowing China to do so. This means that China will have to live with Bush's determination to dominate for at least another two and a half years.

  Arthur Ding is director of research, division III, at the Institute of International Relations of National Chengchi University.

  Translated by Perry Svensson
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