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Conditioning is the most fundamental theory in the psychology of learning. Conditioning is the process by which individuals become increasingly inclined to repeat behavior for which they are rewarded. Of the various methods of conditioning, "partial reinforcement" is not the one that provides the easiest route to successful conditioning, but once it succeeds, the behavior becomes hard to change or eradicate. Partial reinforcement occurs when individuals take some form of action (such as buying lottery tickets) and are sometimes rewarded and sometimes not. Once hooked on an activity, one sinks deeper and deeper into the quagmire, eventually becoming unable to extricate oneself from it. Such situations have been observed in many studies into gambling. It is fair to say that partial reinforcement is having its effect on lottery fans and is one of the reasons why they continue to buy tickets.
Every Tuesday and Friday evening the lottery draw is broadcast live on TV. The two "Lucky Girls" put the 42 numbered balls into the drawing machine. Seven numbers are then picked automatically. The odds of a particular ball being picked are random. The odds would be the same if the balls were changed into balls of different colors. That the seemingly magical No. 39 ball has appeared five times in succession is pure coincidence.
Everyone should be able to understand the independent and random nature of the draw, but we still see reports in the media about irrational behavior induced by the lottery. Some people, for example, believe that num-bers they choose themselves are particularly likely to be picked, that numbers that have not appeared in previous draws will be drawn, or that those that have appeared frequently in previous draws will appear again.
This can be explained by the idea of the "illusion of control" in cognitive psychology. One example of this might be that when playing computer games, for instance, we duck our bodies left or right unconsciously, seemingly believing that the movements will help the games' protagonists advance to the next level more easily. As a result of the "illusion of control," people are inclined to expand or strengthen their own control abilities in an irrational way, believing they have a unique power to influence the results and ignoring rational thinking or true information.
What differentiates the lottery from general gambling behavior is its public-welfare cause, which provides a noble reason for gambling. In other types of gambling behavior, when one loses, the money goes to the winners. But 26.7 percent of lottery revenue is being used to set up public-welfare funds. As a result, lottery fans believe that buying tickets amounts to contributing to public welfare. If they win, they get a sum of money; if they lose, they are still helping others.
Although "spending some money to buy big hopes" is a good investment during an economic slowdown, I advise against buying hopes with bread money. Only invest what you can afford.
Suen Mein-woei is a lecturer in the department of social psychology at Shih Hsin University.
Translated by Jackie Lin
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