Taiwan’s economy is expected to grow 4.45 percent this year, up from a 3.1 percent forecast in May, as stronger-than-expected exports and private investment offset global trade headwinds, the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) said yesterday.
“While US trade policy changes continue to disrupt global commerce, robust demand for artificial intelligence [AI] and emerging technology applications is fueling expansion,” DGBAS Minister Chen Shu-tzu (陳淑姿) told a news conference in Taipei.
Global AI data center construction has remained sturdy despite the emergence of China’s low-cost DeepSeek platform, Chen said, adding that Washington’s recent relaxation of restrictions on chip sales to China has also sped up deliveries of advanced semiconductors and information and communications technology (ICT) products.
Photo: CNA
Electronic components and ICT goods now account for more than 70 percent of Taiwan’s exports, she said.
Second-quarter GDP rose 8.01 percent from a year earlier, slightly above a 7.96 percent estimate last month, after exports in US dollar terms surged 34.06 percent. Full-year exports are expected to reach a record US$589.2 billion, up 24 percent from last year, driven by the ongoing AI boom, the official said.
The DGBAS now projects GDP growth of 2.91 percent in the current quarter and 1.72 percent in the fourth quarter, a noted improvement from the near-zero outlook in May.
The impact of the US tariffs should be manageable, as major Taiwanese firms have built manufacturing facilities in the US and other tariff-friendly markets to cushion the blows of US tariffs and potential semiconductor duties, Chen said.
On the domestic front, private consumption in the second quarter rose 0.49 percent, contributing 0.22 percentage points to GDP growth. However, gains in food, entertainment and transport spending were partly offset by weaker car sales and a drop in stock market turnover, the official said.
Private investment, another bright spot, rose on capacity expansions in advanced manufacturing and the rollout of new production lines for semiconductors, electric vehicles and renewable energy, the DGBAS said.
As a result, first-half GDP expanded 6.75 percent and is forecast to increase 2.3 percent in the second half.
The consumer price index is expected to rise 1.76 percent this year, slowing from last year’s pace and back within the central bank’s 2 percent target, giving room for maintaining a neutral monetary stance.
Risks to the outlook include the scale of US tariffs, the speed of AI and high-performance computing adoption, domestic policy responses, geopolitical tensions, and global monetary policy shifts, Chen said.
The DGBAS forecasts GDP growth of 2.81 percent next year, as the effects of tariffs and front-loading fade.
While the IMF expects global trade growth to slow to 1.9 percent next year, Taiwan’s exports are seen rising 2.19 percent to another record of US$602.1 billion, buoyed by sustained AI-related demand from global technology companies and governments building AI infrastructure, the DGBAS said.
Sweeping policy changes under US Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr are having a chilling effect on vaccine makers as anti-vaccine rhetoric has turned into concrete changes in inoculation schedules and recommendations, investors and executives said. The administration of US President Donald Trump has in the past year upended vaccine recommendations, with the country last month ending its longstanding guidance that all children receive inoculations against flu, hepatitis A and other diseases. The unprecedented changes have led to diminished vaccine usage, hurt the investment case for some biotechs, and created a drag that would likely dent revenues and
Nvidia Corp’s GB300 platform is expected to account for 70 to 80 percent of global artificial intelligence (AI) server rack shipments this year, while adoption of its next-generation Vera Rubin 200 platform is to gradually gain momentum after the third quarter of the year, TrendForce Corp (集邦科技) said. Servers based on Nvidia’s GB300 chips entered mass production last quarter and they are expected to become the mainstay models for Taiwanese server manufacturers this year, Trendforce analyst Frank Kung (龔明德) said in an interview. This year is expected to be a breakout year for AI servers based on a variety of chips, as
Global semiconductor stocks advanced yesterday, as comments by Nvidia Corp chief executive officer Jensen Huang (黃仁勳) at Davos, Switzerland, helped reinforce investor enthusiasm for artificial intelligence (AI). Samsung Electronics Co gained as much as 5 percent to an all-time high, helping drive South Korea’s benchmark KOSPI above 5,000 for the first time. That came after the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose more than 3 percent to a fresh record on Wednesday, with a boost from Nvidia. The gains came amid broad risk-on trade after US President Donald Trump withdrew his threat of tariffs on some European nations over backing for Greenland. Huang further
HSBC Bank Taiwan Ltd (匯豐台灣商銀) and the Taiwan High Prosecutors Office recently signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to enhance cooperation on the suspicious transaction analysis mechanism. This landmark agreement makes HSBC the first foreign bank in Taiwan to establish such a partnership with the High Prosecutors Office, underscoring its commitment to active anti-fraud initiatives, financial inclusion, and the “Treating Customers Fairly” principle. Through this deep public-private collaboration, both parties aim to co-create a secure financial ecosystem via early warning detection and precise fraud prevention technologies. At the signing ceremony, HSBC Taiwan CEO and head of banking Adam Chen (陳志堅)
RSS