Taiwan’s economy is expected to grow 4.45 percent this year, up from a 3.1 percent forecast in May, as stronger-than-expected exports and private investment offset global trade headwinds, the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) said yesterday.
“While US trade policy changes continue to disrupt global commerce, robust demand for artificial intelligence [AI] and emerging technology applications is fueling expansion,” DGBAS Minister Chen Shu-tzu (陳淑姿) told a news conference in Taipei.
Global AI data center construction has remained sturdy despite the emergence of China’s low-cost DeepSeek platform, Chen said, adding that Washington’s recent relaxation of restrictions on chip sales to China has also sped up deliveries of advanced semiconductors and information and communications technology (ICT) products.
Photo: CNA
Electronic components and ICT goods now account for more than 70 percent of Taiwan’s exports, she said.
Second-quarter GDP rose 8.01 percent from a year earlier, slightly above a 7.96 percent estimate last month, after exports in US dollar terms surged 34.06 percent. Full-year exports are expected to reach a record US$589.2 billion, up 24 percent from last year, driven by the ongoing AI boom, the official said.
The DGBAS now projects GDP growth of 2.91 percent in the current quarter and 1.72 percent in the fourth quarter, a noted improvement from the near-zero outlook in May.
The impact of the US tariffs should be manageable, as major Taiwanese firms have built manufacturing facilities in the US and other tariff-friendly markets to cushion the blows of US tariffs and potential semiconductor duties, Chen said.
On the domestic front, private consumption in the second quarter rose 0.49 percent, contributing 0.22 percentage points to GDP growth. However, gains in food, entertainment and transport spending were partly offset by weaker car sales and a drop in stock market turnover, the official said.
Private investment, another bright spot, rose on capacity expansions in advanced manufacturing and the rollout of new production lines for semiconductors, electric vehicles and renewable energy, the DGBAS said.
As a result, first-half GDP expanded 6.75 percent and is forecast to increase 2.3 percent in the second half.
The consumer price index is expected to rise 1.76 percent this year, slowing from last year’s pace and back within the central bank’s 2 percent target, giving room for maintaining a neutral monetary stance.
Risks to the outlook include the scale of US tariffs, the speed of AI and high-performance computing adoption, domestic policy responses, geopolitical tensions, and global monetary policy shifts, Chen said.
The DGBAS forecasts GDP growth of 2.81 percent next year, as the effects of tariffs and front-loading fade.
While the IMF expects global trade growth to slow to 1.9 percent next year, Taiwan’s exports are seen rising 2.19 percent to another record of US$602.1 billion, buoyed by sustained AI-related demand from global technology companies and governments building AI infrastructure, the DGBAS said.
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