Taiwan’s property market would remain weak through the second half of the year, with transactions retreating and home prices facing mild downward pressure, Cushman & Wakefield Taiwan said yesterday.
“The market is cold — very cold,” Cushman & Wakefield Taiwan managing director Billy Yen (顏炳立) said at a news conference in Taipei. “The investment cycle is over, and what lies ahead is a phase of contraction, modest price corrections, and accelerated efforts by developers to clear inventory.”
The firm trimmed its full-year housing transaction forecast to between 265,000 and 270,000 units, down from 280,000 units projected three months ago. Monthly transactions have averaged 22,000 units — signaling a marked slowdown from the boom years that saw volumes exceed 30,000, he said.
Photo: Hsu Yi-ping, Taipei Times
The absence of stimulus policies — such as last year’s first-time buyer incentives — cautious consumer sentiment, higher borrowing costs, and a persistent pricing gap between sellers and buyers have taken a toll on the market, he said.
While transactions are sliding, a sharp correction in home prices remains unlikely, he said.
“There’s no chance of a 50 percent price correction,” he said. “The days of NT$600,000 [US$20,676] to NT$700,000 per ping [3.31m2] are long gone.”
Yen also criticized discounting claims by developers as little more than “marketing theater.”
“Marking up prices and then offering a 20 percent discount is just optics,” he said. “No developer is selling at a loss. It’s all about preserving cash flow.”
On the commercial front, Cushman & Wakefield lowered its land transaction forecast for the year to NT$160 billion, following NT$74.1 billion in deals in the first half. Owner-occupiers accounted for more than 80 percent of the activity, reflecting long-term confidence among corporates despite broader market caution, Yen said.
The commercial office market still holds promise, particularly for old buildings near MRT stations, he said, adding that investors can buy with confidence properties aged 20 to 30 years and priced below NT$900,000 per ping.
Asked whether Nvidia Corp’s expansion in Taipei could catalyze a market rebound, Yen was skeptical.
“It may offer a short-term jolt, but it’s not going to revive the entire property market,” he said.
The sharp drop in dealmaking has left brokers struggling to bridge the growing divide between seller expectations and buyer demands. At the same time, banks are pulling back on real-estate lending, adding to the headwinds, Yen said.
Still, the downtrend does not pose a systemic risk, he said.
“This is a market coming off an overheated phase. What we are seeing is a return to fundamentals, with speculative demand retreating and the market finding a new, more stable equilibrium,” he added.
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