Taiwanese hold a neutral view of the property market next quarter, as cautious sentiment lingers amid economic uncertainty, but housing prices have found support in inflation, an Evertrust Rehouse Co (永慶房屋) survey released yesterday showed.
Almost 60 percent of respondents thought it would be unwise to join the market in the next six months, while nearly 40 percent said it would be better to wait until 2025, suggesting an extended slowdown in transactions, Evertrust research manager Daniel Chen (陳賜傑) said, citing the company’s quarterly survey.
Thirty-four percent said house prices would increase, while 31 percent expected price corrections, with high inflation believed to become a new norm, Chen said.
Photo: Hsu Yi-ping, Taipei Times
Respondents were conservative even though 79 percent said that the recent introduction of favorable lending terms for first-home buyers was helpful in bolstering people’s interest in buying property, he said.
“People by-and-large need more time to digest economic signals at home and abroad,” Chen said, referring to poor exports, capital flight, monetary tightening in advanced economies and international oil price increases.
Evertrust general manager Yeh Ling-chi (葉凌棋) said that while it is difficult to make projections at this point, things could grow more fluid next quarter before Taiwan elects a new president and lawmakers in January.
“Political uncertainty always warrants caution,” Yeh said, adding that Evertrust Rehouse, Taiwan’s largest broker by number of offices, stood by its earlier forecast that housing deals this year would shrink 8 to 11 percent to 283,000 to 293,000 units, despite a better-than-expected third quarter.
A low base accounts for the improvement in comparison values this quarter, Yeh added.
House prices grew a moderate 2 to 4.9 percent in major cities this quarter, as the mentality that real estate is the best defense against inflation supported prices, he said.
Expectations of price declines have not been realized and some buyers decided not to stay on the sidelines any longer, Yeh added.
Of the survey’s respondents, 83 percent said they supported the government’s plan to raise house taxes for people who own multiple homes next year, but they were concerned that it would prompt landlords to pass their extra tax burden on to their tenants.
Small and open, Taiwan’s economy is vulnerable to external influences, and the US’ dim economic outlook for next year would inevitably weigh on Taiwan’s exports, the nation’s main growth driver, Yeh said.
That explains why the public is generally not confident that the nation’s economy will recover next quarter, he said.
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