Efforts to form a breakaway group from South Africa’s ruling African National Congress (ANC) are gaining momentum, but analysts say that the new party still needs to recruit nationally recognized leaders in order to succeed.
Former defense minister Mosiuoa Lekota, an ally of ousted president Thabo Mbeki, indicated on Wednesday that a new party could split from the ANC within weeks.
Lekota — a fiery speaker whose nickname is “Terror” — resigned from the Cabinet after the ANC forced Mbeki to resign last month and has since launched a tirade of criticism at the party that led the anti-apartheid movement.
Lekota is believed to have the support of other Mbeki loyalists angry at the party’s decision to force him from power just months before the end of his mandate, with elections due next year.
But so far no high-profile politicians have voiced support for the proposed organization.
“The disgruntled clique led by Lekota seems intent on forming a new party,” independent political analyst Aubrey Matshiqi said.
“However, the new party ought to have good, qualitative leadership to survive and garner a significant number of votes in the upcoming elections,” Matshiqi said. “Right now, the main voices behind this proposed party fall short of credible leadership credentials. It will be interesting to see how they fare once they are outside the ANC.”
Divisions within the ANC had been simmering since 2005, when Mbeki fired Jacob Zuma as his deputy after Zuma’s former financial adviser was convicted on corruption charges. The tension heightened at the party’s national conference last December, when Mbeki was unceremoniously unseated by Zuma as party president — ending his bid at running for the country’s presidency for a third term.
“The question is, can this new party really come forward with a group of credible leaders and a set of big ideas that capture the imagination of the South African public?” said Hennie van Vurren, an analyst from the Institute of Security Studies. “At the moment it is not a massive threat to the ANC. However, in the next few weeks, there is a possibility, if [Lekota] is able to mobilize groups from civil society and that they develop this into something substantive.”
The move to form a new political party was welcomed by the main opposition Democratic Alliance (DA).
“The disintegration of the ANC has begun, heralding an exciting new era in South Africa,” opposition leader Helen Zille said. “The DA is prepared to work with any party or individual that shares our vision of a non-racial South Africa united behind the Constitution.”
But the DA has failed to pose a meaningful challenge to the ANC, as have earlier groups that broke away from the ruling party.
In 1997 Bantu Holomisa, an ANC member of parliament, formed the United Democratic Movement to contest elections the following year.
The party won little support and now holds only seven of the 400 seats in parliament.
“All historic indications show that he will not be able to make it, the ANC will repair itself and retain its broad support,” said Paul Graham, executive director of the Institute of Democracy in South Africa.
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