For all the talk of the need to connect with Europe’s citizens, few things get EU officials into a sweat like seeing their very vision put on the line in a referendum, like the one Ireland will hold on Thursday.
In past popular votes on EU treaties, the European public has proved difficult to predict under pressure from party politics or lobbies, or as people seek to register protests against their own government.
Often the results have highlighted the gulf between the great vision of Europe’s political elites and the needs of its people.
The European Commission — home to the “unelected Eurocrats” derided in the press — is warning that there is no plan B should the Lisbon treaty be rejected.
And a “no” vote — which is a distinct possibility according to opinion polls — could see the EU once again in unchartered waters.
Yet such setbacks have been overcome in the past.
Voters in Ireland and Denmark have rejected EU treaties, but reversed their decision when the question was put to them a second time.
In June 2001, concerns about defense were also partly behind the decision by Irish people to vote “no” to the Nice treaty, which contained key institutional reforms needed for the bloc to enlarge, as it did by 10 members in 2004.
There were also fears that enlargement might cost Ireland — the only of the 27 nations attempting to ratify the Lisbon treaty by referendum — the generous EU subsidies that helped revive its economy.
After European leaders formally recognized Ireland’s long-standing military neutrality — and a campaign by major parties, businesses, unions and farm groups — Nice passed muster in October 2002.
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