General David Petraeus, the top US commander in Iraq, will not promise Congress large troop withdrawals beyond July, saying it is too soon to make decisions about the second half of the year, defense officials say.
Petraeus will tell Congress next week the US military needs time to evaluate security conditions throughout Iraq before committing to more large troop reductions this year.
That assessment period, referred to as a “pause” in withdrawals, has assumed greater significance for Pentagon officials after last week’s clashes in Baghdad and Basra between Iraqi forces and Shiite militiaman — fighting that raised doubts about the skill of US-trained Iraqi soldiers.
“It is the kind of violence and lack of security that would certainly drive an assessment of what we would do after that [pause in withdrawals],” chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mike Mullen said.
“The period of consolidation and evaluation will take place and we’ll take recommendations based on conditions on the ground there,” Mullen said ahead of Petraeus’ testimony.
That call for a pause will likely rile Democrats and other opponents of the Bush administration’s Iraq policy, who have latched onto the Basra fighting as a sign the increase or “surge” of US troops last year failed to move Iraqis any closer to security or political stability.
“I think it’s time we take a sober look,” said Senator Joseph Biden, a Democrat and chairman of the Senate’s Foreign Relations Committee.
“My question really is ... not whether the surge has tactically worked or not. Has the purpose of the surge been accomplished?” he said.
The Pentagon is pulling five brigades — about 20,000 combat troops — out of Iraq under plans announced last year. Two of the five have already left.
The US has 158,000 troops in Iraq now and Petraeus is expected to tell Congress exactly how many troops will be in Iraq when reductions are finished in July.
He may discuss the possibility of restarting withdrawals and the potential pace of any drawdown. But an assessment period will come first, officials said and a pause could last at least a month and perhaps much longer.
Petraeus and US Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker will also be asked by lawmakers during the hearings on Tuesday and Wednesday to assess the success of the surge strategy.
The addition of combat troops last year has been credited with lowering attacks and deaths, especially in Baghdad. That led some US officials to declare the surge a military success.
But other factors helped improve security too, including Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr’s order for his Mehdi Army militia to cease fire and a decision by Sunni leaders in Anbar to join US and Iraqi forces in their fight against al-Qaeda.
Meanwhile, a new classified US National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq paints a rosier picture of the conditions on the ground than previous reports on the war, the Wall Street Journal reported online on Thursday.
The daily said officials describe the document as broadly backing the “surge” strategy.
The officials would not describe details of the report, but said it focused on improvements in security and in the Iraqi government, the newspaper said.
The newspaper reported that this has angered some Democrats who say the report was designed to bolster the Bush administration’s policy in Iraq ahead of Petraeus’ testimony.
The report was requested by Senator John Warner and delivered to Congress on Tuesday.
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