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US exit poll inflames Venezuelan recall controversy

A US firm's exit poll that said President Hugo Chavez would lose a recall referendum has landed in the center of a controversy following his resounding victory.

"Exit Poll Results Show Major Defeat for Chavez," the survey, conducted by Penn, Schoen & Berland Associates, asserted even as Sunday's voting was still proceeding.

The poll said 59 percent of voters favored recalling Chavez. In fact, Chavez won, with 59 percent of voters saying he should complete his term in office.

Any casual observer of the 2000 US presidential elections knows exit polls can at times be unreliable.

But the poll has become an issue here because the opposition, which mounted the drive to force the leftist leader from office, insists it is evidence of fraud. The opposition also claims electronic voting machines were rigged, but has provided no evidence.

Publication or broadcast of any exit polls were banned by election officials during the historic vote on whether to oust Chavez, a leftist who has sought to help the poor and is reviled by the wealthy, who accuse him of stoking class divisions.

But more than four hours before polls closed, results of the Penn, Schoen & Berland survey were sent out by fax and e-mail to media outlets and opposition offices.

Cesar Gaviria, secretary general of the Organization of American States who monitored the referendum, said the poll must have had a tremendous impact on Chavez's opponents, who felt they were about to complete their two-year drive to oust him.

"They were told they had a lead of 20 points and then when the results came, they lost by 20 points," Gaviria said. "It's very difficult to deal with that."

Both Gaviria and former US President Jimmy Carter, another election monitor, endorsed the results of the election, saying they coincided with their own independent samplings.

Mark Penn, of Penn, Schoen & Berland Associates, said Wednesday he has limited knowledge of the exit poll because he was not directly involved.

"This exit poll happened to be run by my partner Doug Schoen," Penn said. "He believes there were more problems with the voting than with the exit poll."

Schoen could not immediately be reached, and another employee familiar with the poll declined to comment.

"We have to let the authorities do their investigation of the election," said Marcela Berland, with the American polling firm. "It would be irresponsible to interfere with that."

Critics are calling into question how the survey was conducted amid reports it involved a US-funded group the Chavez government considers hostile. Penn, Schoen & Berland Associates used members of Sumate, a Venezuelan group that helped organize the recall initiative, to do the fieldwork for the poll, election observers said.

Roberto Abdul, a Sumate official, acknowledged in a telephone interview that the firm "supervised" an exit poll carried out by Sumate.

Abdul added that at least five exit polls were completed for the opposition, with all pointing to a Chavez victory.

Abdul said Sumate -- which has received a US$53,400 grant from the National Endowment for Democracy, which in turn receives funds from the US Congress -- did not use any of those funds to pay for the surveys.

The issue is a potential minefield because even before the referendum, Chavez himself cited Washington's funding of Sumate as evidence the Bush administration was financing efforts to oust him -- an allegation US officials have stoutly denied.
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