Canadian Prime Minister Paul Martin's gamble in calling an early election has yet to show signs of paying off, with questions being raised over whether he will lose his parliamentary majority or even lose office after six months in power.
Martin's Liberals made no major gaffes in the first week of campaigning for the June 28 vote, but the 65-year-old leader has also failed to catch fire.
In calling the election last Sunday, a year and a half before he had to, the gamble was that he could raise his support during the campaign to the point where he could salvage a majority government -- but his polling numbers have gone the wrong direction.
"In the four weeks remaining before June 28, Martin must reconnect with fickle, angry voters, illuminate a vision for Canada's future that has lost its focus, and, most important, dispel rising doubts about his leadership," columnist Jim Travers wrote in the pro-Liberal Toronto Star.
"Martin, who just months ago, was expected to sweep the country, might now become opposition leader and, in time, little more than a political curiosity," Travers wrote.
Martin had gained respect as finance minister from 1993 to 2002, when he delivered balanced budgets first and then tax cuts. He had an aura of invincibility and superstar popularity as he ousted his political rival, Jean Chretien, as prime minister in December.
He remains ahead of the Conservatives by a lead of 38 percent to 30 percent in the latest poll, but this is a far cry from leads of 30 points to which the Liberals had become accustomed. It would also mean losing a majority in Parliament.
The Conservatives, who are pushing for more tax cuts while Martin now says Canada cannot afford them, could even deny him even a minority government if the current trends continue, Ekos pollster Frank Graves predicted on Friday.
If he becomes a "political curiosity" as a short-term prime minister, Martin would join the ranks of Conservatives Kim Campbell, in office for just five months in 1993, and Joe Clark, who served nine months from 1979-80, and Liberal John Turner, who lasted just three months in 1984.
"I don't think [Martin is] seen as change anymore," the Star quoted Graves as saying as it released an Ekos poll showing 59 percent of Canadians think it's time to change parties.
Voters had certainly tired of Chretien after they gave him three successive majorities. Martin had to try to present a new face despite being elected under Chretien and serving in his cabinet.
The two biggest reasons for the decline in the polls are a spending scandal which saw government ad money being channeled to Liberal firms, sometimes for no work, and a broken-promise tax hike by Ontario's provincial Liberals.
Martin's strategists put a brave face on the numbers -- "It's only the first week," one said -- and said they saw encouraging signs especially toward the end of the week.
A sleeper issue in this campaign is gay marriage, which the Liberals want to legalize but most Conservatives oppose.
Four people jailed in the landmark Hong Kong national security trial of "47 democrats" accused of conspiracy to commit subversion were freed today after more than four years behind bars, the second group to be released in a month. Among those freed was long-time political and LGBTQ activist Jimmy Sham (岑子杰), who also led one of Hong Kong’s largest pro-democracy groups, the Civil Human Rights Front, which disbanded in 2021. "Let me spend some time with my family," Sham said after arriving at his home in the Kowloon district of Jordan. "I don’t know how to plan ahead because, to me, it feels
The collapse of the Swiss Birch glacier serves as a chilling warning of the escalating dangers faced by communities worldwide living under the shadow of fragile ice, particularly in Asia, experts said. Footage of the collapse on Wednesday showed a huge cloud of ice and rubble hurtling down the mountainside into the hamlet of Blatten. Swiss Development Cooperation disaster risk reduction adviser Ali Neumann said that while the role of climate change in the case of Blatten “still needs to be investigated,” the wider impacts were clear on the cryosphere — the part of the world covered by frozen water. “Climate change and
Poland is set to hold a presidential runoff election today between two candidates offering starkly different visions for the country’s future. The winner would succeed Polish President Andrzej Duda, a conservative who is finishing his second and final term. The outcome would determine whether Poland embraces a nationalist populist trajectory or pivots more fully toward liberal, pro-European policies. An exit poll by Ipsos would be released when polls close today at 9pm local time, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. Final results are expected tomorrow. Whoever wins can be expected to either help or hinder the
DENIAL: Musk said that the ‘New York Times was lying their ass off,’ after it reported he used so much drugs that he developed bladder problems Elon Musk on Saturday denied a report that he used ketamine and other drugs extensively last year on the US presidential campaign trail. The New York Times on Friday reported that the billionaire adviser to US President Donald Trump used so much ketamine, a powerful anesthetic, that he developed bladder problems. The newspaper said the world’s richest person also took ecstasy and mushrooms, and traveled with a pill box last year, adding that it was not known whether Musk also took drugs while heading the so-called US Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) after Trump took power in January. In a
RSS